Kansas vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KUTeam statsHOU
- Q4 3:05KUJacob Borcila 33 Yd Field Goal 48–30
- Q4 4:56HOUBubba Baxa 20 Yd Field Goal 45–30
- Q4 10:27KUJacob Borcila 22 Yd Field Goal 45–27
- Q3 0:00HOUClayton Tune 14 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa PAT failed)42–27
- Q3 2:39KUJared Casey 8 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)42–21
- Q3 4:24KUJalon Daniels 9 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)35–21
- Q3 10:30HOUTa'Zhawn Henry 1 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa Kick)28–21
- Q2 1:16KUTorry Locklin 60 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)28–14
- Q2 9:01KULuke Grimm 5 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)21–14
- Q1 1:06KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 8 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)14–14
- Q1 2:43KUJalon Daniels 12 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:18HOUBrandon Campbell 40 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:01HOUTa'Zhawn Henry 34 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Bubba Baxa Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJalon Daniels 14/23, 158 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJalon Daniels 12 CAR, 123 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTorry Locklin 1 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- PassClayton Tune 22/31, 272 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushClayton Tune 16 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTa'Zhawn Henry 5 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:24KU +33%
Jalon Daniels run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
- Q2 1:16KU +27%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Torry Locklin for 60 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
- Q3 10:30HOU +21%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)
- Q2 9:01KU +20%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 5 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
- Q3 2:39KU +12%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 8 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
- Q1 1:06KU +11%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas vs. Houston?
Kansas 48, Houston 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 438 | Total yards | 446 |
| 158 | Passing yards | 272 |
| 280 | Rushing yards | 174 |
| 24 | First downs | 26 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 14/23 | Comp/Att | 22/31 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 6.5 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-25 | Penalties | 10-73 |
| 31:27 | Possession | 28:33 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:07 HOU punt on 4th & 1 at HOU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:05KUJacob Borcila 33 Yd Field Goal 48–30
- Q4 4:56HOUBubba Baxa 20 Yd Field Goal 45–30
- Q4 10:27KUJacob Borcila 22 Yd Field Goal 45–27
- Q3 0:00HOUClayton Tune 14 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa PAT failed)42–27
- Q3 2:39KUJared Casey 8 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)42–21
- Q3 4:24KUJalon Daniels 9 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)35–21
- Q3 10:30HOUTa'Zhawn Henry 1 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa Kick)28–21
- Q2 1:16KUTorry Locklin 60 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)28–14
- Q2 9:01KULuke Grimm 5 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)21–14
- Q1 1:06KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 8 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)14–14
- Q1 2:43KUJalon Daniels 12 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:18HOUBrandon Campbell 40 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:01HOUTa'Zhawn Henry 34 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Bubba Baxa Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1615, KU Elo 1254 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -16.8 (86% to win) — 8.3 points clear of HOU's market line of -8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #66 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| KU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.1 (#33) | CORE overall | +4.8 (#50) |
| +17 / +7 | offense / defense | +9 / +5 |
| 2.96 | points / drive | 3.11 |
| 3.42 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →