Rice vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RICETeam statsMRSH
- Q3 7:50RICENaeem Smith 36 Yd Interception Return (Collin Riccitelli Kick)20–0
- Q3 9:24RICECollin Riccitelli 40 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 5:49RICECollin Riccitelli 39 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 1:06RICEJordan Myers 1 Yd Run (Collin Riccitelli Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MRSH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and RICE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.8
- PassJoVoni Johnson-McCray 10/14, 86 YDS
- RushAri Broussard 19 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecJake Bailey 7 REC, 57 YDS
- PassGrant Wells 18/35, 165 YDS, 5 INT
- RushBrenden Knox 20 CAR, 76 YDS
- RecTalik Keaton 7 REC, 48 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRICE up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:06RICE +17%
Jordan Myers run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK)
- Q3 7:50RICE +17%
Grant Wells pass intercepted for a TD Naeem Smith return for 36 yds for a TD (Collin Riccitelli KICK)
- Q2 5:49RICE +14%
Collin Riccitelli 39 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 9:24RICE +13%
Collin Riccitelli 40 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 11:45RICE +8%
Khalan Griffin run for 2 yds to the Marsh 25
- Q2 2:59RICE +7%
Ari Broussard run for 1 yd to the Marsh 49
FAQ
What was the final score of Rice vs. Marshall?
Rice 20, Marshall 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| RICE | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 213 | Total yards | 245 |
| 86 | Passing yards | 165 |
| 127 | Rushing yards | 80 |
| 17 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 10/14 | Comp/Att | 18/35 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 8-80 |
| 36:26 | Possession | 23:34 |
Costliest call
Q4 15:00 MRSH go for it on 4th & 16 at RICE 27. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.02 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 7:50RICENaeem Smith 36 Yd Interception Return (Collin Riccitelli Kick)20–0
- Q3 9:24RICECollin Riccitelli 40 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 5:49RICECollin Riccitelli 39 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 1:06RICEJordan Myers 1 Yd Run (Collin Riccitelli Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1676, RICE Elo 1330 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -16.2 (86% to win) — 7.8 points clear of RICE's market line of -24. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#1 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #3 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #16 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →Marshall leads 5–3 · 25% have been one-possession games
| RICE | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.0 (#64) | CORE overall | +5.8 (#42) |
| -4 / -5 | offense / defense | -2 / -7 |
| -8 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →