Purdue vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PURTeam statsMINN
- Q4 5:28PURRondale Moore 9 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)10–41
- Q4 10:09MINNTyler Johnson 12 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Emmit Carpenter Kick)3–41
- Q3 4:37MINNBryce Williams 11 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)3–34
- Q3 10:26MINNSeth Green 2 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)3–27
- Q3 14:10MINNBlake Cashman 40 Yd Fumble Return (Emmit Carpenter Kick)3–20
- Q2 3:40MINNEmmit Carpenter 27 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 9:03MINNJake Paulson 11 Yd pass from Seth Green (Emmit Carpenter Kick)3–10
- Q1 2:59PURSpencer Evans 40 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 7:16MINNEmmit Carpenter 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDavid Blough 20/31, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- RushD.J. Knox 10 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecRondale Moore 8 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTanner Morgan 10/18, 139 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMohamed Ibrahim 18 CAR, 155 YDS
- RecTyler Johnson 5 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 14:10MINN +23%
David Blough run for a loss of 6 yards David Blough fumbled, recovered by Minn Blake Cashman, return for 40 yds (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
- Q2 9:03MINN +20%
Seth Green pass complete to Jake Paulson for 11 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
- Q2 3:40MINN +12%
Emmit Carpenter 27 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 10:26MINN +11%
Seth Green run for 2 yds for a TD (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
- Q1 7:16MINN +7%
Emmit Carpenter 24 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 11:27MINN +6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 35 yds to the Prdue 5 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Purdue vs. Minnesota?
Purdue 10, Minnesota 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PUR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| PUR | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 233 | Total yards | 415 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 150 |
| 88 | Rushing yards | 265 |
| 14 | First downs | 22 |
| 0-12 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/32 | Comp/Att | 11/20 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 6.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-81 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 26:47 | Possession | 33:13 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:16 PUR punt on 4th & 1 at PUR 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:28PURRondale Moore 9 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)10–41
- Q4 10:09MINNTyler Johnson 12 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Emmit Carpenter Kick)3–41
- Q3 4:37MINNBryce Williams 11 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)3–34
- Q3 10:26MINNSeth Green 2 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)3–27
- Q3 14:10MINNBlake Cashman 40 Yd Fumble Return (Emmit Carpenter Kick)3–20
- Q2 3:40MINNEmmit Carpenter 27 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 9:03MINNJake Paulson 11 Yd pass from Seth Green (Emmit Carpenter Kick)3–10
- Q1 2:59PURSpencer Evans 40 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 7:16MINNEmmit Carpenter 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1343, PUR Elo 1786 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN +15.3 (17% to win) — 5.3 points clear of PUR's market line of +10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#6 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #38 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Minnesota leads 42–35–3 · 46% have been one-possession games
| PUR | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.3 (#56) | CORE overall | -0.3 (#66) |
| +4 / +3 | offense / defense | -1 / -1 |
| 2.29 | points / drive | 2.27 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.15 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +16 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →