Lincoln (CA) vs. Lamar: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Lincoln (CA)0-3

00

Lamar0-1

▸0038

Final

Provost Umphrey Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
LINC	0	0	0	0	0
LAMA	14	10	7	7	38

LINCTeam statsLAMA

106Total yards493

26Pass192

80Rush301

10First downs26

4-153rd down6-12

0Turnovers2

30:14Possession29:46

Scoring plays

• Q4 14:55LAMAMajor Bowden 1 Yd Run (Chris Esqueda Kick)0–38
• Q3 10:40LAMAKhalan Griffin 1 Yd Run (Chris Esqueda Kick)0–31
• Q2 0:00LAMAChris Esqueda 25 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q2 3:15LAMADamashja Harris 7 Yd Run (Chris Esqueda Kick)0–21
• Q1 3:06LAMAIzaha Jones 2 Yd pass from Robert Coleman (Chris Esqueda Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:28LAMAAndre Dennis 4 Yd pass from Robert Coleman (Chris Esqueda Kick)0–7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

LINC aheadLAMA ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = LINC ahead, below = LAMA ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

Leaders

Lincoln (CA)

• PassTJ Goodwin 7/18, 18 YDS
• RushOtis Weah 15 CAR, 48 YDS
• RecShamon Gennes 4 REC, 14 YDS

Lamar

• PassRobert Coleman 15/19, 192 YDS, 2 TD
• RushKhalan Griffin 12 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
• RecMajor Bowden 4 REC, 60 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

125

Points / snap

0.30

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

LAMA up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 342 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

LAMA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WGeorgia Southern vs The Citadel34-0WButler vs Taylor41-13WTemple vs Norfolk State41-11WLouisiana vs UAB41-21WUtah vs Arizona State55-3

Fourth downs

15 calls

LINC gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.LINC 9/10 · LAMA 3/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Lincoln (CA) vs. Lamar?

Lincoln (CA) 0, Lamar 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (LAMA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LINC

LAMA

32%

Success rate

56%

-0.47

EPA / pass

0.58

-0.03

EPA / rush

0.40

35%

Early-down success

56%

15%

Pass success

64%

45%

Rush success

52%

4%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

10%

Stuffed rush rate

4%

46%

Pass rate

32%

7.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.5

LINC

7.4 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

LAMA

5.5 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LINC		LAMA
106	Total yards	493
26	Passing yards	192
80	Rushing yards	301
10	First downs	26
4-15	3rd down	6-12
0-3	4th down	1-1
9/22	Comp/Att	15/20
1.2	Yards per pass	9.6
2.4	Yards per rush	6.7
0	Turnovers	2
10-92	Penalties	9-115
30:14	Possession	29:46

Fourth downs

15 calls

LINC

9/10 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

LAMA

3/4 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 9:42 LINC go for it on 4th & 17 at LAMA 18. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.12 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LINC 0/11 scoring drives← own end zone →LAMA 6/12 scoring drives

LAMATD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

LINCPUNT3 pl, -15 yds· own 27Q1

LAMATD12 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

LINCPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1

LAMAPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 21Q1

LINCPUNT10 pl, 29 yds· own 20Q2

LAMAMISS5 pl, 47 yds· own 30Q2

LINCPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 23Q2

LAMATD3 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q2

LINCPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 37Q2

LAMAFG6 pl, 70 yds· own 15Q2

LINCPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 23Q3

LAMATD6 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q3

LINCPUNT6 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

LAMATD13 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q3

LINCDOWNS9 pl, 41 yds· own 41Q4

LAMAFUM3 pl, 32 yds· own 18Q4

LINCDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· midfieldQ4

LAMAFUM3 pl, 9 yds· own 41Q4

LINCDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· midfieldQ4

LAMAPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 41Q4

LINCPUNT5 pl, 25 yds· own 20Q4

LAMAEND2 pl, -4 yds· own 11Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 14:55LAMAMajor Bowden 1 Yd Run (Chris Esqueda Kick)0–38
• Q3 10:40LAMAKhalan Griffin 1 Yd Run (Chris Esqueda Kick)0–31
• Q2 0:00LAMAChris Esqueda 25 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q2 3:15LAMADamashja Harris 7 Yd Run (Chris Esqueda Kick)0–21
• Q1 3:06LAMAIzaha Jones 2 Yd pass from Robert Coleman (Chris Esqueda Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:28LAMAAndre Dennis 4 Yd pass from Robert Coleman (Chris Esqueda Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →