Georgia vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UGATeam statsLSU
- Q4 4:14LSUNick Brossette 4 Yd Run (Cole Tracy Kick)16–36
- Q4 6:00UGARiley Ridley 27 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)16–29
- Q4 7:20LSUCole Tracy 30 Yd Field Goal 9–29
- Q4 9:31LSUJoe Burrow 1 Yd Run (Cole Tracy Kick)9–26
- Q3 0:07UGAElijah Holyfield 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–19
- Q3 3:00LSUCole Tracy 24 Yd Field Goal 3–19
- Q3 9:03UGARodrigo Blankenship 40 Yd Field Goal 3–16
- Q2 5:09LSUCole Tracy 39 Yd Field Goal 0–16
- Q2 11:22LSUCole Tracy 36 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 13:34LSUJoe Burrow 1 Yd Run (Cole Tracy Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:32LSUCole Tracy 33 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJake Fromm 16/34, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushD'Andre Swift 12 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecRiley Ridley 3 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJoe Burrow 15/30, 200 YDS
- RushClyde Edwards-Helaire 19 CAR, 145 YDS
- RecJustin Jefferson 6 REC, 108 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:34LSU +20%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)
- Q2 5:09LSU +11%
Cole Tracy 39 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 0:07UGA +11%
Elijah Holyfield run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q4 11:15LSU +9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 46
- Q4 15:00LSU +8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr Chase, broken up by Brenton Cox
- Q1 9:32LSU +8%
Cole Tracy 33 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia vs. LSU?
Georgia 16, LSU 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UGA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UGA | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 322 | Total yards | 475 |
| 209 | Passing yards | 200 |
| 113 | Rushing yards | 275 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 6-19 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 4-4 |
| 16/34 | Comp/Att | 15/30 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-20 | Penalties | 2-19 |
| 26:19 | Possession | 33:41 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:47 LSU punt on 4th & 2 at UGA 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.29 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:14LSUNick Brossette 4 Yd Run (Cole Tracy Kick)16–36
- Q4 6:00UGARiley Ridley 27 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)16–29
- Q4 7:20LSUCole Tracy 30 Yd Field Goal 9–29
- Q4 9:31LSUJoe Burrow 1 Yd Run (Cole Tracy Kick)9–26
- Q3 0:07UGAElijah Holyfield 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–19
- Q3 3:00LSUCole Tracy 24 Yd Field Goal 3–19
- Q3 9:03UGARodrigo Blankenship 40 Yd Field Goal 3–16
- Q2 5:09LSUCole Tracy 39 Yd Field Goal 0–16
- Q2 11:22LSUCole Tracy 36 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 13:34LSUJoe Burrow 1 Yd Run (Cole Tracy Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:32LSUCole Tracy 33 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1811, UGA Elo 1988 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU +4.7 (39% to win) — 2.3 points clear of LSU's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#39 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #62 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #32 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →LSU leads 18–14–1 · 48% have been one-possession games
| UGA | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +38.3 (#3) | CORE overall | +20.6 (#9) |
| +24 / -14 | offense / defense | +2 / -19 |
| 3.32 | points / drive | 2.45 |
| 1.67 | allowed / drive | 1.76 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →