Missouri vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsFLA
- Q4 0:26FLATreon Harris 3 Yd Run (Francisco Velez PAT blocked)42–13
- Q3 1:43FLATevin Westbrook 5 Yd pass from Treon Harris (Francisco Velez Kick)42–7
- Q3 5:57MIZDarvin Ruise 46 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Baggett Kick)42–0
- Q3 7:25MIZMarkus Golden 21 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Baggett Kick)35–0
- Q3 13:01MIZMarcus Murphy 82 Yd Punt Return (Maty Mauk Pass to Bud Sasser for Two-Point Conversion)28–0
- Q2 4:21MIZAndrew Baggett 34 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q2 8:38MIZAndrew Baggett 25 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 3:50MIZMarcus Murphy 5 Yd Run (Andrew Baggett Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:49MIZMarcus Murphy 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Andrew Baggett Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MIZ played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FLA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.7
- PassMaty Mauk 6/18, 20 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMaty Mauk 7 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecDarius White 2 REC, 9 YDS
- PassTreon Harris 8/12, 98 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKelvin Taylor 12 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecDemarcus Robinson 4 REC, 48 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:50MIZ +15%
Marcus Murphy run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Florida?
Missouri 42, Florida 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIZ | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 119 | Total yards | 283 |
| 20 | Passing yards | 148 |
| 99 | Rushing yards | 135 |
| 7 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 8-19 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 6/18 | Comp/Att | 15/31 |
| 1.1 | Yards per pass | 4.8 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 11-74 | Penalties | 3-39 |
| 26:01 | Possession | 33:59 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:01 FLA punt on 4th & 1 at FLA 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:26FLATreon Harris 3 Yd Run (Francisco Velez PAT blocked)42–13
- Q3 1:43FLATevin Westbrook 5 Yd pass from Treon Harris (Francisco Velez Kick)42–7
- Q3 5:57MIZDarvin Ruise 46 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Baggett Kick)42–0
- Q3 7:25MIZMarkus Golden 21 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Baggett Kick)35–0
- Q3 13:01MIZMarcus Murphy 82 Yd Punt Return (Maty Mauk Pass to Bud Sasser for Two-Point Conversion)28–0
- Q2 4:21MIZAndrew Baggett 34 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q2 8:38MIZAndrew Baggett 25 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 3:50MIZMarcus Murphy 5 Yd Run (Andrew Baggett Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:49MIZMarcus Murphy 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Andrew Baggett Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1686, MIZ Elo 1737 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA -0.4 (52% to win) — 5.1 points clear of MIZ's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #82 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Missouri leads 7–6 · 38% have been one-possession games
| MIZ | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.11 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 1.21 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 30% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →