#21Kelvin Taylor

RB·Florida·20152.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kelvin Taylor is a Featured Back for Florida. Kelvin's 2015 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 272 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kelvin Taylor's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1035 Rush yards13 Rush TD259 Carries4.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

17 Receptions150 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.8 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency10
Volume88
Explosiveness20
Consistency23
Receiving34

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency23th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Peak game: 0.66 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -19).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNew Mexico State	W61-13	-18.6	8	54	6.8	1	2	41	0	0.66
2	vsEast Carolina	W31-24	-0.5	16	55	3.4	1	1	6	0	-0.05
3	@Kentucky	W14-9	-0.3	16	45	2.8	1	1	7	0	0.08
4	vsTennessee	W28-27	19.5	19	102	5.4	2	1	-4	0	0.04
5	vsOle Miss	W38-10	27.0	27	83	3.1	0	2	15	0	-0.17
6	@Missouri	W21-3	3.4	28	99	3.5	2	3	25	0	0.04
7	@LSU	L28-35	19.7	15	25	1.7	1	2	15	0	0.20
9	vsGeorgia	W27-3	16.8	25	121	4.8	2	—	—	—	0.19
10	vsVanderbilt	W9-7	-1.6	17	47	2.8	1	—	—	—	-0.12
11	@South Carolina	W24-14	3.4	20	105	5.3	1	1	15	0	0.41
12	vsFlorida Atlantic	W20-14	-9.8	26	105	4.0	1	1	12	0	0.07
13	vsFlorida State	L2-27	23.2	24	136	5.7	0	3	18	0	0.30
14	vsAlabama	L15-29	29.0	7	8	1.1	0	—	—	—	-0.45
1	vsMichigan	L7-41	19.7	11	50	4.5	0	—	—	—	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

30.7%

Passing plays

5.7%

Rushing plays

54.9%

Standard downs

35.4%

Passing downs

21.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: 0.14
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.25 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.