Boise State vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsAF
- Q4 6:21BOISShane Williams-Rhodes 10 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Dan Goodale Kick)14–28
- Q4 9:55BOISAlec Dhaenens 2 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Dan Goodale Kick)7–28
- Q4 11:35AFJacobi Owens 10 Yd Run (Kale Pearson Pass to Garrett Brown for Two-Point Conversion)0–28
- Q3 1:47AFWill Conant 21 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 0:00AFWill Conant 25 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 8:19AFKale Pearson 5 Yd Run (Will Conant Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:26AFGarrett Brown 4 Yd pass from Kale Pearson (Will Conant Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BOIS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.2 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassGrant Hedrick 18/33, 209 YDS, 4 INT
- RushJay Ajayi 17 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecThomas Sperbeck 6 REC, 79 YDS
- PassKale Pearson 5/11, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKale Pearson 20 CAR, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGarrett Brown 3 REC, 28 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAF up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:19AF +25%
Kale Pearson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
- Q1 7:26AF +16%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Garrett Brown for 4 yds for a TD, (Will Conant KICK)
- Q2 0:00AF +10%
Will Conant 25 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 3:48AF +8%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 21
- Q2 1:48AF +6%
Kale Pearson pass incomplete to N/A
- Q2 9:34AF +6%
Kale Pearson pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 11 yds to the BoiSt 7 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Air Force?
Boise State 14, Air Force 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BOIS | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 467 | Total yards | 335 |
| 370 | Passing yards | 48 |
| 97 | Rushing yards | 287 |
| 24 | First downs | 16 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 2-6 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 30/58 | Comp/Att | 5/12 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 4.0 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-80 | Penalties | 5-47 |
| 27:59 | Possession | 32:01 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:24 AF punt on 4th & 1 at BOIS 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:21BOISShane Williams-Rhodes 10 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Dan Goodale Kick)14–28
- Q4 9:55BOISAlec Dhaenens 2 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Dan Goodale Kick)7–28
- Q4 11:35AFJacobi Owens 10 Yd Run (Kale Pearson Pass to Garrett Brown for Two-Point Conversion)0–28
- Q3 1:47AFWill Conant 21 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 0:00AFWill Conant 25 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 8:19AFKale Pearson 5 Yd Run (Will Conant Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:26AFGarrett Brown 4 Yd pass from Kale Pearson (Will Conant Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1235, BOIS Elo 1655 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF +14.4 (18% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#27 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #16 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Boise State leads 9–4 · Boise State has won 3 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| BOIS | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.68 | points / drive | 2.49 |
| 1.49 | allowed / drive | 1.90 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 26% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →