#9Grant Hedrick

QB·Boise State·20148.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Grant Hedrick is a Dual-Threat QB for Boise State. Grant's 2014 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 557 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Grant Hedrick's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

294/415 Comp/Att3696 Pass yards23 Pass TD14 INT70.8% Comp %

Rushing

592 Rush yards8 Rush TD155 Carries3.8 Yards/carry

Punting

2 Punts72 Punt yards36.0 Yards/punt40 Long2 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency40
Volume100
Dual-Threat74
Consistency76
Clutch76

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.33 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.89 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Wyoming (SP+ -14).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsOle Miss	L13-35	20.7	36/46	264	1	4	31.8	24	0	0.06
2	vsColorado State	W37-24	4.5	22/33	352	2	1	86.2	80	1	0.38
3	@UConn	W38-21	-14.1	19/27	233	2	0	58.6	-4	0	0.29
4	vsLouisiana	W34-9	2.2	24/31	237	0	0	82.7	24	0	0.13
5	@Air Force	L14-28	-1.4	18/33	209	0	4	17.7	40	0	-0.07
6	@Nevada	W51-46	-7.3	26/31	346	2	1	79.1	40	1	0.46
8	vsFresno State	W37-27	-6.9	21/30	190	1	0	64.2	56	0	0.22
9	vsBYU	W55-30	10.2	24/31	410	4	1	95.5	29	1	0.86
11	@New Mexico	W60-49	-15.0	21/32	367	4	0	95.9	131	2	0.89
12	vsSan Diego State	W38-29	1.0	19/28	187	1	2	70.4	41	1	0.26
13	@Wyoming	W63-14	-14.0	13/19	246	3	0	90.3	22	0	0.89
14	vsUtah State	W50-19	6.0	18/24	191	2	0	75.6	-1	0	0.09
15	vsFresno State	W28-14	-6.9	9/16	155	0	0	92.7	81	2	0.42
1	vsArizona	W38-30	7.6	24/34	309	1	1	68.0	29	0	0.37

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.8%

Passing plays

92.4%

Rushing plays

22.3%

Standard downs

46.0%

Passing downs

68.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.47
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.