Arkansas State vs. Massachusetts: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Arkansas State2-2

▸

Massachusetts1-4

Final

Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ARST	17	14	14	7	52
MASS	0	10	10	8	28

ARSTTeam statsMASS

556Total yards381

383Pass269

173Rush112

32First downs22

6-103rd down5-13

0Turnovers1

29:58Possession30:02

Q4 10:52MASSKay'Ron Lynch-Adams 2 Yd Run (Taisun Phommachanh Pass to Anthony Simpson for Two-Point Conversion)52–28
Q4 13:57ARSTAdam Jones 55 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Dominic Zvada Kick)52–20
Q3 1:12ARSTJeff Foreman 26 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Dominic Zvada Kick)45–20
Q3 3:04MASSGreg Desrosiers Jr. 5 Yd pass from Taisun Phommachanh (Cameron Carson Kick)38–20
Q3 9:55ARSTReagan Ealy 33 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Dominic Zvada Kick)38–13
Q3 11:36MASSCameron Carson 24 Yd Field Goal 31–13
Q2 2:45MASSCameron Carson 22 Yd Field Goal 31–10
Q2 7:36ARSTCourtney Jackson 4 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Dominic Zvada Kick)31–7
Q2 13:31ARSTJeff Foreman 39 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Dominic Zvada Kick)24–7
Q2 14:48MASSGreg Desrosiers Jr. 60 Yd Run (Cameron Carson Kick)17–7
Q1 4:43ARSTDominic Zvada 44 Yd Field Goal 17–0
Q1 9:04ARSTEmmanual Stevenson 5 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Dominic Zvada Kick)14–0
Q1 11:56ARSTJa'Quez Cross 11 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

MASS −2.1

market MASS −1.5

Biggest swing

MASS +14%

Q2 14:48

Against the number

ARST covered

line MASS −1.5

MASS favored ↑50%ARST favored ↓

GridpexARST 100%

Closing line

MASS −1.5

Closing total

55.0

Model line

MASS −2.1

Actual result

ARST 52 – 28 MASS

Arkansas State

PassJaylen Raynor 20/25, 383 YDS, 6 TD
RushZak Wallace 11 CAR, 54 YDS
RecAdam Jones 3 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD

Massachusetts

PassTaisun Phommachanh 29/38, 269 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
RushGreg Desrosiers Jr. 3 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
RecMark Pope 6 REC, 85 YDS

22.6sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

125

Points / snap

0.64

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ARST up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 583 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ARST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUCF vs Kent State56-6 WUAB vs North Carolina A&T35-6 WFlorida A&M vs Jackson State28-10 WOregon State vs San José State42-17 WWest Virginia vs Duquesne56-17

Q2 14:48MASS +14%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 60 yds for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)
Q2 13:31ARST +14%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 39 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
Q2 7:36ARST +8%
Courtney Jackson 4 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Dominic Zvada Kick)

FAQ

What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Massachusetts?

Arkansas State 52, Massachusetts 28.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked MASS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

ARST

MASS

49%

Success rate

45%

1.19

EPA / pass

0.29

0.11

EPA / rush

0.37

48%

Early-down success

48%

69%

Pass success

39%

36%

Rush success

58%

15%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

15%

10%

Stuffed rush rate

40%

Pass rate

68%

4.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.5

ARST

4.8 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

MASS

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

ARST		MASS
556	Total yards	381
383	Passing yards	269
173	Rushing yards	112
32	First downs	22
6-10	3rd down	5-13
0-1	4th down	0-0
20/25	Comp/Att	29/38
15.3	Yards per pass	7.1
4.3	Yards per rush	4.5
0	Turnovers	1
10-104	Penalties	12-127
29:58	Possession	30:02

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

MASS 1047

ARST 1055

Projected spread

MASS -2.1

incl. home edge

Model pick

MASS

57% to win

Market spread

MASS -1.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

57%

MASS · market 96%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MASS Elo 1047, ARST Elo 1055 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MASS -2.1 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2023

nationally ranked

ARST2023 season · national rank shownMASS

373.674th

Total yards / game

356.388th

5.955th

Yards / play

5.860th

225.563rd

Passing yards / game

214.181st

148.279th

Rushing yards / game

142.285th

35.5%103rd

3rd down %

36.4%91st

443.6127th

Yards allowed / game

428.0117th

40.5%89th

3rd down % allowed

44.3%113th

+342nd

Turnover margin

-174th

6.282nd

Penalties / game

8.0131st

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Arkansas State were +1.5 — a 46% shot

#29 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #113 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.

The 2023 upset archive →

Opponent-adjusted profile2023

ARST		MASS
-10.4 (#100)	CORE overall	-18.3 (#120)
-3 / +8	offense / defense	-1 / +17
1.93	points / drive	1.54
2.50	allowed / drive	3.24
22%	three-and-outs	30%
+0	pass over expected	+1

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

ARSTTeam statsMASS

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Massachusetts?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2023

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Arkansas State vs. Massachusetts: Final Score & Recap

ARSTTeam statsMASS

How the model called it

What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Massachusetts?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups