Virginia vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UVATeam statsUNC
- Q4 8:51UVAMalik Washington 14 Yd pass from Tony Muskett (Will Bettridge Kick)31–27
- Q4 12:08UNCNoah Burnette 27 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q3 0:32UVAWill Bettridge 45 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q3 3:56UVAMike Hollins 1 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)21–24
- Q3 9:35UNCDrake Maye 3 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:00UNCNoah Burnette 43 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 13:12UNCBryson Nesbit 62 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:56UVAMike Hollins 3 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:36UNCDevontez Walker 25 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:05UVAMike Hollins 11 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTony Muskett 20/30, 208 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushPerris Jones 14 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecMalik Washington 12 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDrake Maye 24/48, 347 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushOmarion Hampton 19 CAR, 112 YDS
- RecDevontez Walker 11 REC, 146 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,330 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:51UVA +44%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
- Q4 3:12UVA +24%
Perris Jones run for 8 yds to the UVA 28
- Q4 4:50UNC +22%
Drake Maye pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 33 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST down
- Q4 7:55UVA +18%
Tony Muskett run for 18 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST down
- Q4 0:00UVA +18%
T. Muskett takes a knee
- Q4 8:51UNC +17%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollum
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia vs. North Carolina?
Virginia 31, North Carolina 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UVA | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 436 | Total yards | 490 |
| 208 | Passing yards | 347 |
| 228 | Rushing yards | 143 |
| 26 | First downs | 26 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 20/30 | Comp/Att | 24/48 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-40 | Penalties | 6-58 |
| 37:06 | Possession | 22:54 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:14 UVA punt on 4th & 2 at UVA 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:51UVAMalik Washington 14 Yd pass from Tony Muskett (Will Bettridge Kick)31–27
- Q4 12:08UNCNoah Burnette 27 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q3 0:32UVAWill Bettridge 45 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q3 3:56UVAMike Hollins 1 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)21–24
- Q3 9:35UNCDrake Maye 3 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:00UNCNoah Burnette 43 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 13:12UNCBryson Nesbit 62 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:56UVAMike Hollins 3 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:36UNCDevontez Walker 25 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:05UVAMike Hollins 11 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNC Elo 1756, UVA Elo 1313 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNC -20.1 (90% to win) — 3.9 points clear of UVA's market line of -24. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#24 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #3 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #4 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →North Carolina leads 65–51–4 · 41% have been one-possession games
| UVA | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.4 (#87) | CORE overall | +5.2 (#44) |
| -3 / +3 | offense / defense | +7 / +2 |
| 1.63 | points / drive | 2.69 |
| 2.67 | allowed / drive | 2.24 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →