Minnesota vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsPUR
- Q4 2:37MINNElijah Spencer 4 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick)30–49
- Q4 5:13PURTyrone Tracy Jr. 1 Yd Run (Ben Freehill Kick)23–49
- Q4 10:38MINNDragan Kesich 39 Yd Field Goal 23–42
- Q4 12:53PURDevin Mockobee 6 Yd Run (Ben Freehill Kick)20–42
- Q3 11:29PURDeion Burks 42 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Ben Freehill Kick)20–35
- Q2 0:16MINNChris Autman-Bell 27 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick)20–28
- Q2 3:52PURHudson Card 1 Yd Run (Ben Freehill Kick)13–28
- Q2 8:21PURTyrone Tracy Jr. 6 Yd Run (Ben Freehill Kick)13–21
- Q2 9:49MINNDragan Kesich 42 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q1 1:05PURTJ Sheffield 24 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Ben Freehill Kick)10–14
- Q1 3:48MINNDragan Kesich 38 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 9:52PURGarrett Miller 20 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Ben Freehill Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:00MINNBrevyn Spann-Ford 20 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 18/42, 292 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJordan Nubin 16 CAR, 89 YDS
- RecDaniel Jackson 7 REC, 119 YDS
- PassHudson Card 17/25, 251 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDevin Mockobee 17 CAR, 153 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGarrett Miller 6 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPUR up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,205 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:21PUR +21%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK)
- Q1 1:05PUR +20%
Hudson Card pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 24 yds for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK)
- Q2 0:16MINN +18%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 27 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
- Q2 3:52PUR +17%
Hudson Card run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK)
- Q1 9:52PUR +17%
Hudson Card pass complete to Garrett Miller for 20 yds for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK)
- Q3 11:29PUR +16%
Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 42 yds for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Purdue?
Minnesota 30, Purdue 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MINN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MINN | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 407 | Total yards | 604 |
| 292 | Passing yards | 251 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 353 |
| 21 | First downs | 25 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 18/42 | Comp/Att | 17/25 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 8.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-19 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 28:43 | Possession | 31:17 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:44 PUR punt on 4th & 8 at MINN 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:37MINNElijah Spencer 4 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick)30–49
- Q4 5:13PURTyrone Tracy Jr. 1 Yd Run (Ben Freehill Kick)23–49
- Q4 10:38MINNDragan Kesich 39 Yd Field Goal 23–42
- Q4 12:53PURDevin Mockobee 6 Yd Run (Ben Freehill Kick)20–42
- Q3 11:29PURDeion Burks 42 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Ben Freehill Kick)20–35
- Q2 0:16MINNChris Autman-Bell 27 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick)20–28
- Q2 3:52PURHudson Card 1 Yd Run (Ben Freehill Kick)13–28
- Q2 8:21PURTyrone Tracy Jr. 6 Yd Run (Ben Freehill Kick)13–21
- Q2 9:49MINNDragan Kesich 42 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q1 1:05PURTJ Sheffield 24 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Ben Freehill Kick)10–14
- Q1 3:48MINNDragan Kesich 38 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 9:52PURGarrett Miller 20 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Ben Freehill Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:00MINNBrevyn Spann-Ford 20 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1448, MINN Elo 1589 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +3.2 (43% to win) — 2.2 points clear of MINN's market line of +1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #116 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Minnesota leads 42–35–3 · 46% have been one-possession games
| MINN | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.6 (#88) | CORE overall | -2.3 (#74) |
| -6 / -0 | offense / defense | +1 / +4 |
| 1.99 | points / drive | 1.89 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 2.32 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →