Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KSUTeam statsOKST
- Q4 8:56KSUWill Howard 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–29
- Q4 11:31OKSTAlex Hale 25 Yd Field Goal 15–29
- Q3 0:17KSUTreshaun Ward 11 Yd Run (Will Howard Run for Two-Point Conversion)15–26
- Q3 4:47OKSTAlex Hale 31 Yd Field Goal 7–26
- Q3 12:03OKSTAlex Hale 53 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q2 0:34OKSTCameron Epps 35 Yd Interception Return (Alex Hale Kick)7–20
- Q2 0:55OKSTAlex Hale 34 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 11:59KSUBen Sinnott 1 Yd pass from Will Howard (Chris Tennant Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:04OKSTAlex Hale 43 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:54OKSTOllie Gordon II 2 Yd Run (Alex Hale Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassWill Howard 15/34, 152 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushWill Howard 10 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecPhillip Brooks 3 REC, 50 YDS
- PassAlan Bowman 19/35, 235 YDS
- RushOllie Gordon II 21 CAR, 136 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Bray 4 REC, 77 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOKST up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,141 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:34OKST +23%
Will Howard pass intercepted by Cameron Epps, returned 35 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
- Q2 11:59KSU +20%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
- Q1 7:54OKST +17%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
- Q4 8:56KSU +17%
Will Howard run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q3 0:17KSU +16%
Treshaun Ward run for 11 yds for a TD (W. Howard Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q4 8:40OKST +11%
Ollie Gordon II run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 34
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State?
Kansas State 21, Oklahoma State 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KSU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 372 | Total yards | 412 |
| 152 | Passing yards | 238 |
| 220 | Rushing yards | 174 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 6-18 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 15/34 | Comp/Att | 20/36 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-32 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 25:18 | Possession | 34:42 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:25 KSU go for it on 4th & 8 at OKST 13. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.79 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:56KSUWill Howard 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–29
- Q4 11:31OKSTAlex Hale 25 Yd Field Goal 15–29
- Q3 0:17KSUTreshaun Ward 11 Yd Run (Will Howard Run for Two-Point Conversion)15–26
- Q3 4:47OKSTAlex Hale 31 Yd Field Goal 7–26
- Q3 12:03OKSTAlex Hale 53 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q2 0:34OKSTCameron Epps 35 Yd Interception Return (Alex Hale Kick)7–20
- Q2 0:55OKSTAlex Hale 34 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 11:59KSUBen Sinnott 1 Yd pass from Will Howard (Chris Tennant Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:04OKSTAlex Hale 43 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:54OKSTOllie Gordon II 2 Yd Run (Alex Hale Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1462, KSU Elo 1804 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST +11.3 (24% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#59 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #25 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Oklahoma State leads 43–26 · Kansas State has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| KSU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.5 (#24) | CORE overall | +4.5 (#47) |
| +10 / -5 | offense / defense | +3 / -1 |
| 3.07 | points / drive | 2.19 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 2.32 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →