Auburn vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AUBTeam statsMD
- Q4 6:53AUBJeremiah Cobb 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–31
- Q3 11:05MDGlendon Miller 44 Yd Interception Return (Jack Howes Kick)7–31
- Q2 0:08MDJack Howes 49 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 2:34AUBBrandon Frazier 3 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Alex McPherson Kick)7–21
- Q1 3:24MDDylan Wade 3 Yd pass from Cameron Edge (Jack Howes Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:58MDPreston Howard 5 Yd pass from Billy Edwards Jr. (Jack Howes Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:11MDBilly Edwards Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassHank Brown 7/9, 132 YDS
- RushJarquez Hunter 13 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecCaleb Burton III 5 REC, 78 YDS
- PassBilly Edwards Jr. 6/20, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBilly Edwards Jr. 13 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRoman Hemby 1 REC, 61 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Auburn vs. Maryland?
Auburn 13, Maryland 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MD) was correct.
| AUB | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 300 | Total yards | 310 |
| 224 | Passing yards | 208 |
| 76 | Rushing yards | 102 |
| 20 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 3-6 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 21/42 | Comp/Att | 10/26 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-36 | Penalties | 7-80 |
| 31:52 | Possession | 28:08 |
- Q4 6:53AUBJeremiah Cobb 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–31
- Q3 11:05MDGlendon Miller 44 Yd Interception Return (Jack Howes Kick)7–31
- Q2 0:08MDJack Howes 49 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 2:34AUBBrandon Frazier 3 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Alex McPherson Kick)7–21
- Q1 3:24MDDylan Wade 3 Yd pass from Cameron Edge (Jack Howes Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:58MDPreston Howard 5 Yd pass from Billy Edwards Jr. (Jack Howes Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:11MDBilly Edwards Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1649, AUB Elo 1631 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects MD -0.7 (53% to win) — 4.2 points clear of MD's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #78 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| AUB | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.4 (#59) | CORE overall | +16.7 (#17) |
| -4 / -5 | offense / defense | +8 / -9 |
| 2.00 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 1.98 | allowed / drive | 2.03 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →