UAB vs. Navy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UABTeam statsNAVY
- Q4 2:03NAVYRayuan Lane III 97 Yd Interception Return (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)6–31
- Q4 4:12NAVYXavier Arline 50 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)6–24
- Q4 10:08NAVYDaba Fofana 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)6–17
- Q3 9:13NAVYNathan Kirkwood 31 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 6:22UABMatt Quinn 29 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 0:30UABMatt Quinn 37 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 2:49NAVYRegis Velez 45 Yd pass from Xavier Arline (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJacob Zeno 25/36, 206 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJermaine Brown Jr. 15 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecBryce Damous 1 REC, 42 YDS
- PassXavier Arline 7/10, 94 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushXavier Arline 19 CAR, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRegis Velez 1 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNAVY up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,447 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 10:08NAVY +21%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
- Q1 2:49NAVY +19%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Regis Velez for 45 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
- Q3 9:13NAVY +18%
Nathan Kirkwood 31 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 6:22UAB +9%
Matt Quinn 29 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 0:30UAB +8%
Matt Quinn 37 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:52NAVY +8%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Joshua Pena) to the UAB 47
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. Navy?
UAB 6, Navy 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
| UAB | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 321 | Total yards | 363 |
| 206 | Passing yards | 94 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 269 |
| 19 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 25/36 | Comp/Att | 7/10 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 8-69 |
| 26:45 | Possession | 33:15 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:03NAVYRayuan Lane III 97 Yd Interception Return (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)6–31
- Q4 4:12NAVYXavier Arline 50 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)6–24
- Q4 10:08NAVYDaba Fofana 2 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)6–17
- Q3 9:13NAVYNathan Kirkwood 31 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 6:22UABMatt Quinn 29 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 0:30UABMatt Quinn 37 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 2:49NAVYRegis Velez 45 Yd pass from Xavier Arline (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1306, UAB Elo 1367 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY PK (51% to win) — 3.5 points clear of NAVY's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #82 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| UAB | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.4 (#86) | CORE overall | -16.9 (#116) |
| +6 / +11 | offense / defense | -15 / +2 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 1.30 |
| 3.34 | allowed / drive | 1.78 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -21 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →