New Mexico State vs. Auburn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NMSUTeam statsAUB
- Q4 1:59NMSUMakhilyn Young 2 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)31–10
- Q4 5:29AUBAlex McPherson 48 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q4 8:42NMSUEli Stowers 2 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)24–7
- Q3 5:03NMSUStar Thomas 17 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)17–7
- Q2 0:26NMSUEthan Albertson 40 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 6:28AUBRivaldo Fairweather 32 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Alex McPherson Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:34NMSUKordell David 9 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDiego Pavia 19/28, 201 YDS, 3 TD
- RushStar Thomas 7 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecKordell David 4 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- PassPayton Thorne 15/19, 148 YDS, 1 TD
- RushPayton Thorne 17 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecJa'Varrius Johnson 2 REC, 46 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNMSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,139 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:03NMSU +29%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
- Q2 6:28AUB +19%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 32 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
- Q1 9:34NMSU +15%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 9 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
- Q2 0:26NMSU +12%
Ethan Albertson 40 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 8:48NMSU +11%
Eli Stowers run for 2 yds to the AUB 2
- Q3 3:40NMSU +8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Auburn?
New Mexico State 31, Auburn 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked AUB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NMSU | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 414 | Total yards | 213 |
| 201 | Passing yards | 148 |
| 213 | Rushing yards | 65 |
| 23 | First downs | 12 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 2-10 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 19/28 | Comp/Att | 15/19 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-75 | Penalties | 9-75 |
| 38:50 | Possession | 21:10 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:45 AUB punt on 4th & 2 at AUB 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:59NMSUMakhilyn Young 2 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)31–10
- Q4 5:29AUBAlex McPherson 48 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q4 8:42NMSUEli Stowers 2 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)24–7
- Q3 5:03NMSUStar Thomas 17 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)17–7
- Q2 0:26NMSUEthan Albertson 40 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 6:28AUBRivaldo Fairweather 32 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Alex McPherson Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:34NMSUKordell David 9 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1705, NMSU Elo 1391 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB -15 (84% to win) — 9.0 points clear of NMSU's market line of -24. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#3 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #2 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| NMSU | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.1 (#55) | CORE overall | +0.4 (#59) |
| +4 / +3 | offense / defense | -4 / -5 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 2.00 |
| 2.24 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →