Colorado vs. TCU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
COLOTeam statsTCU
- Q4 4:25COLODylan Edwards 46 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Jace Feely Kick)45–42
- Q4 7:00TCUTrey Sanders 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)38–42
- Q4 7:36COLOJimmy Horn Jr. 26 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Jace Feely Kick)38–35
- Q4 10:49TCUChandler Morris 19 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)31–35
- Q3 0:27COLODylan Edwards 7 Yd Run (Jace Feely Kick)31–28
- Q3 2:32TCUDylan Wright 23 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Griffin Kell Kick)24–28
- Q3 13:29TCUJared Wiley 21 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Griffin Kell Kick)24–21
- Q3 14:24COLODylan Edwards 75 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Jace Feely Kick)24–14
- Q2 0:00COLOJace Feely 49 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 1:53TCUTrey Sanders 4 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)14–14
- Q2 9:28COLOSy'veon Wilkerson 2 Yd Run (Jace Feely Kick)14–7
- Q2 13:57TCUTrey Sanders 7 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:58COLODylan Edwards 4 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassShedeur Sanders 38/47, 510 YDS, 4 TD
- RushSy'veon Wilkerson 13 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDylan Edwards 5 REC, 135 YDS, 3 TD
- PassChandler Morris 24/42, 279 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushEmani Bailey 14 CAR, 164 YDS
- RecJP Richardson 6 REC, 63 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCOLO up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,455 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:25COLO +57%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 46 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK)
- Q4 7:36COLO +45%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK)
- Q4 7:00TCU +35%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
- Q3 0:27COLO +34%
Dylan Edwards run for 7 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK)
- Q4 0:55COLO +28%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 5 yds to the COLO 41
- Q4 4:20TCU +25%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado vs. TCU?
Colorado 45, TCU 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| COLO | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 565 | Total yards | 541 |
| 510 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 55 | Rushing yards | 262 |
| 30 | First downs | 27 |
| 9-15 | 3rd down | 10-17 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 38/47 | Comp/Att | 24/42 |
| 10.9 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-35 | Penalties | 10-78 |
| 34:33 | Possession | 25:27 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:25COLODylan Edwards 46 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Jace Feely Kick)45–42
- Q4 7:00TCUTrey Sanders 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)38–42
- Q4 7:36COLOJimmy Horn Jr. 26 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Jace Feely Kick)38–35
- Q4 10:49TCUChandler Morris 19 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)31–35
- Q3 0:27COLODylan Edwards 7 Yd Run (Jace Feely Kick)31–28
- Q3 2:32TCUDylan Wright 23 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Griffin Kell Kick)24–28
- Q3 13:29TCUJared Wiley 21 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Griffin Kell Kick)24–21
- Q3 14:24COLODylan Edwards 75 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Jace Feely Kick)24–14
- Q2 0:00COLOJace Feely 49 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 1:53TCUTrey Sanders 4 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)14–14
- Q2 9:28COLOSy'veon Wilkerson 2 Yd Run (Jace Feely Kick)14–7
- Q2 13:57TCUTrey Sanders 7 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:58COLODylan Edwards 4 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TCU Elo 1652, COLO Elo 1157 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TCU -22.2 (92% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#36 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #7 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #17 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →| COLO | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.9 (#82) | CORE overall | +9.9 (#33) |
| +4 / +7 | offense / defense | +11 / +1 |
| 2.15 | points / drive | 2.70 |
| 2.71 | allowed / drive | 2.49 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →