North Carolina vs. NC State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsNCSU
- Q3 5:44UNCDevontez Walker 21 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–39
- Q3 7:54NCSUDelbert Mimms III 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–39
- Q3 8:50UNCDrake Maye 1 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)14–33
- Q3 10:26NCSUDacari Collins 20 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brayden Narveson Kick)7–33
- Q2 0:00NCSUBrayden Narveson 24 Yd Field Goal 7–26
- Q2 4:34UNCJohn Copenhaver 15 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)7–23
- Q2 5:57NCSUBrayden Narveson 28 Yd Field Goal 0–23
- Q2 10:15NCSUKevin Concepcion 6 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–20
- Q2 12:56NCSUKevin Concepcion 11 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–13
- Q1 5:32NCSUBrayden Narveson 40 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 10:35NCSUBrayden Narveson 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NCSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.3 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassDrake Maye 22/38, 254 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushDrake Maye 9 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJohn Copenhaver 5 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrennan Armstrong 22/31, 334 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKC Concepcion 11 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecKC Concepcion 7 REC, 131 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNCSU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,039 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:56NCSU +17%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 11 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
- Q2 10:15NCSU +10%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
- Q1 10:35NCSU +8%
Brayden Narveson 32 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 5:32NCSU +8%
Brayden Narveson 40 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 4:34UNC +7%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 15 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. NC State?
North Carolina 20, NC State 39.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNC | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 504 |
| 254 | Passing yards | 334 |
| 130 | Rushing yards | 170 |
| 21 | First downs | 27 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/38 | Comp/Att | 22/31 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 6.2 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-99 | Penalties | 8-64 |
| 19:54 | Possession | 40:06 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:28 NCSU punt on 4th & 6 at UNC 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 5:44UNCDevontez Walker 21 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–39
- Q3 7:54NCSUDelbert Mimms III 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–39
- Q3 8:50UNCDrake Maye 1 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)14–33
- Q3 10:26NCSUDacari Collins 20 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brayden Narveson Kick)7–33
- Q2 0:00NCSUBrayden Narveson 24 Yd Field Goal 7–26
- Q2 4:34UNCJohn Copenhaver 15 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)7–23
- Q2 5:57NCSUBrayden Narveson 28 Yd Field Goal 0–23
- Q2 10:15NCSUKevin Concepcion 6 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–20
- Q2 12:56NCSUKevin Concepcion 11 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brayden Narveson Kick)0–13
- Q1 5:32NCSUBrayden Narveson 40 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 10:35NCSUBrayden Narveson 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NCSU Elo 1609, UNC Elo 1685 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NCSU +0.6 (49% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#49 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #103 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →North Carolina leads 60–41–5 · NC State has won 5 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| UNC | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.2 (#44) | CORE overall | +5.6 (#42) |
| +7 / +2 | offense / defense | -4 / -10 |
| 2.69 | points / drive | 1.92 |
| 2.24 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →