Washington State vs. Texas State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Washington State gets at Texas State: 27th at throwing it, against a unit 65th at defending the pass. Where Texas State gets at Washington State: 24th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 78th at stuffing runs at the line. Washington State is also 27th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 64th.
How
WSUattacks
TXST
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
WSU#27 of 138TXST#65 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
WSU#27 of 138TXST#64 of 138
HowTXSTattacksWSU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
TXST#24 of 138WSU#78 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
TXST#22 of 138WSU#69 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
TXST#18 of 138WSU#60 of 138
The two teams
Washington State
Washington State is in year 1 under Kirby Moore. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 7th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 130th at hitting chunk plays.
Washington State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#7projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#14projected
- Offensefirst and second down#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#130projected
Texas State
Texas State is in year 4 under G.J. Kinne, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th at running it. The way in is 121st at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+6.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Texas State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#6projected
- Offensethrowing it#9projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#121projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1433, WSU Elo 1536 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -4 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
WSU129th112thTXSTTXST92nd117thWSUThrough the air
WSU126th128thTXSTTXST100th97thWSUOn the ground
WSU117th99thTXSTTXST36th125thWSUStaying on the field
WSU134th111thTXSTTXST23rd116thWSUTaking care of it
WSU118th88thTXSTTXST133rd53rdWSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WSU | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.4 (#47) | CORE overall | +6.5 (#46) |
| -2 / -8 | offense / defense | +8 / +2 |
| 0.91 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 1.89 | allowed / drive | 5.78 |
| 45% | three-and-outs | 11% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Washington State vs. Texas State?
Gridpex's model favors Texas State with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Washington State vs. Texas State?
The model projects Texas State by 4.0.
What time is Washington State vs. Texas State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM ET, at Bobcat Stadium (TX).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →