Colorado State vs. Washington State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Washington State gets at Colorado State: 29th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 129th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Colorado State projects no clear way in against Washington State. Washington State is also 37th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 130th.
How
WSUattacks
CSU
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
WSU#29 of 138CSU#129 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
WSU#37 of 138CSU#130 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
WSU#39 of 138CSU#132 of 138
The two teams
Colorado State
Colorado State is in year 1 under Jim Mora, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 133rd at closing out passing downs, and they are 132nd at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −39.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#133projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#131projected
Washington State
Washington State is in year 1 under Kirby Moore. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 120th at hitting chunk plays.
Washington State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#15projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#22projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#29projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#120projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WSU Elo 1533, CSU Elo 1336 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WSU -12.2 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
CSU13th124thWSUWSU135th115thCSUThrough the air
CSU24th98thWSUWSU131st57thCSUOn the ground
CSU29th130thWSUWSU123rd111thCSUStaying on the field
CSU33rd125thWSUWSU137th31stCSUTaking care of it
CSU21st76thWSUWSU104th1stCSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CSU | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.4 (#94) | CORE overall | -0.4 (#71) |
| +0 / +6 | offense / defense | -5 / -5 |
| 3.50 | points / drive | 0.46 |
| 1.00 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Colorado State vs. Washington State?
Gridpex's model favors Washington State with a 78% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Colorado State vs. Washington State?
The model projects Washington State by 12.2.
What time is Colorado State vs. Washington State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 10:30 PM ET, at Gesa Field.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →