Memphis vs. UNLV: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsUNLV
- Q4 12:11MEMPhilippe Laforge 36 Yd Field Goal 27–21
- Q3 0:43MEMPhilippe Laforge 32 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q3 8:38MEMJaylin Carter 36 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)21–21
- Q3 10:15UNLVKayden McGee 22 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Ramon Villela Kick)14–21
- Q3 13:07MEMStonka Burnside 48 Yd pass from Marcus Stokes (Philippe Laforge Kick)14–14
- Q2 1:56UNLVJackson Arnold 6 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–14
- Q2 5:24MEMHunter Tipton 16 Yd pass from Marcus Stokes (Philippe Laforge Kick)7–7
- Q2 8:14UNLVTavian McNair 38 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Ramon Villela Kick)0–7
How the model called it
The underdog pulled off the upset — here's how Memphis did it.
Memphis wasn't supposed to win this one. They stun UNLV, 27-21 at Allegiant Stadium. Nobody pulled clear, and Memphis had the better end of the last ten minutes. Marcus Stokes threw for 223 yards on 26 attempts with two touchdowns and ran seven times for 45 yards.
- PassMarcus Stokes 15/26, 223 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJaylin Carter 15 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJemyri Davis 3 REC, 62 YDS
- PassJackson Arnold 25/37, 291 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJackson Arnold 21 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJai'Den Thomas 6 REC, 54 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. UNLV?
Memphis 27, UNLV 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNLV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MEM | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 418 | Total yards | 460 |
| 223 | Passing yards | 291 |
| 195 | Rushing yards | 169 |
| 20 | First downs | 23 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 3-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 15/26 | Comp/Att | 25/38 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-70 | Penalties | 7-75 |
| 24:51 | Possession | 35:09 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:11MEMPhilippe Laforge 36 Yd Field Goal 27–21
- Q3 0:43MEMPhilippe Laforge 32 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q3 8:38MEMJaylin Carter 36 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)21–21
- Q3 10:15UNLVKayden McGee 22 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Ramon Villela Kick)14–21
- Q3 13:07MEMStonka Burnside 48 Yd pass from Marcus Stokes (Philippe Laforge Kick)14–14
- Q2 1:56UNLVJackson Arnold 6 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–14
- Q2 5:24MEMHunter Tipton 16 Yd pass from Marcus Stokes (Philippe Laforge Kick)7–7
- Q2 8:14UNLVTavian McNair 38 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Ramon Villela Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNLV Elo 1581, MEM Elo 1526 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNLV -4.6 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 10 in 2026 by biggest miss · #7 of 10 in 2026 by longest odds.
The 2026 upset archive →| MEM | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.4 (#36) | CORE overall | +0.3 (#68) |
| +9 / -1 | offense / defense | -3 / -4 |
| 3.00 | points / drive | 1.83 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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18 of UNLV's 21 points came from Jackson Arnold
The underdog pulled off the upset — here's how Memphis did it.
We had this one the other way
Before kickoff we made UNLV the pick by about 1. The model missed the side: it favored UNLV by ~1, but Memphis won by 6 as the underdog.
Memphis lived in the backfield
Memphis sacked UNLV's quarterback 6 times to UNLV's 1, chiefly Elijah Kinsler (2.5 sacks), Taylor Burton (1 sack) and J'Mond Tapp (1 sack). Memphis scored on 42% of its drives to UNLV's 23%, led by Marcus Stokes (12 pts), Jaylin Carter (6 pts) and Hunter Tipton (6 pts). That's what carried Memphis.
Where it swung
Three plays carried most of the swing. Jackson Arnold's 38-yard throw to Tavian Mcnair for a touchdown on 2nd-and-9 at Q2 08:14. Then Marcus Stokes's 48-yard throw to Braylon Burnside for a touchdown on 1st-and-10 at Q3 13:07. Later, Jackson Arnold's 54-yard run on 2nd-and-10 at Q3 12:47.
Who carried it
Marcus Stokes threw for 223 yards on 26 attempts with two touchdowns and ran seven times for 45 yards — that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in nine plays of 15 yards or more. Jemyri Davis caught three passes for 62 yards. Jaylin Carter ran 15 times for 97 yards and one score. For UNLV, Jackson Arnold threw for 291 yards on 37 attempts with two touchdowns and ran 21 times for 54 yards and one score — that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in 10 plays of 15 yards or more. Tavian Mcnair caught one pass for 38 yards for a touchdown. Kayden McGee ran one times for 18 yards and caught three passes for 48 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Elijah Kinsler was the disruptive one for Memphis: 2.5 sacks, 2.5 TFLs, 6 tackles.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Memphis has a signature win to point to. For UNLV, it's the kind a contender has to avoid. Jackson Arnold was responsible for 18 of UNLV's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →