UNLV vs. San José State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Keys to this game
the three widest mismatches on the field
- 1
UNLV on short yardage
power success — third and fourth and short, and the goal line
UNLV69%power success93%
SJSU - 2
When SJSU runs
EPA per carry against the front that has to stop it
SJSU+0.01EPA/play+0.22UNLV - 3
When SJSU throws
EPA per dropback against the secondary that has to cover it
SJSU+0.42EPA/play+0.21UNLV
Each line is one unit's season average against the unit it will face. The bar shows how far apart they are relative to the rest of the country — it is a description of the matchup, not a prediction.
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where UNLV gets at San José State: 51st at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 137th at stuffing runs at the line. Where San José State gets at UNLV: 55th in the push up front, against a unit 136th at holding the line of scrimmage. UNLV is also 70th on first and second down, against a unit 133rd.
HowUNLVattacksSJSU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 31% this season, 3 games
UNLV15.0%#51 of 138SJSU12.7%#137 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · 30% this season, 3 games
UNLV45%#70 of 138SJSU55%#133 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · 30% this season, 3 games
UNLV38%#74 of 138SJSU53%#133 of 138
HowSJSUattacksUNLV
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 28% this season, 3 games
SJSU3.17#55 of 138UNLV3.79#136 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · 29% this season, 3 games
SJSU39%#90 of 138UNLV51%#131 of 138
The two teams
UNLV
UNLV throws it: Dan Mullen's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The way in is 136th at defending the run, and they are 136th at holding the line of scrimmage.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UNLV has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defenserunning it+0.22#136 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets3.79#136 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points4.12#125 of 138
San José State
San José State runs it: Ken Niumatalolo's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 10 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 4th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 137th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 134th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
San José State has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 32% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.99#4 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.7%#137 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss13.3%#134 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground53%#133 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1413, UNLV Elo 1480 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU +22.3 (6% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UNLV110th78thSJSUSJSU68th103rdUNLVThrough the air
UNLV93rd117thSJSUSJSU49th88thUNLVOn the ground
UNLV68th74thSJSUSJSU74th108thUNLVStaying on the field
UNLV93rd110thSJSUSJSU104th106thUNLVTaking care of it
UNLV104th22ndSJSUSJSU74th76thUNLV
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan José State leads 20–8–1 · 38% have been one-possession games
| UNLV | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.9 (#90) | CORE overall | +0.8 (#67) |
| -7 / -2 | offense / defense | -4 / -4 |
| 1.37 | points / drive | 2.39 |
| 2.27 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UNLV vs. San José State?
Gridpex's model favors UNLV with a 94% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UNLV vs. San José State?
The model projects UNLV by 22.3.
What time is UNLV vs. San José State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ET, at CEFCU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →