Marshall vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MRSHTeam statsPSU
- Q4 7:59PSUCam Wallace 6 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–45
- Q3 6:16PSUQuinton Martin Jr. 6 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–38
- Q3 11:14PSUZay Robinson 39 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)0–31
- Q2 1:18PSUBenjamin Brahmer 8 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)0–24
- Q1 4:49PSUBrett Eskildsen 25 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)0–17
- Q1 8:35PSUKoby Howard 42 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)0–10
- Q1 12:26PSURyan Barker 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
Marshall never had a foothold. Penn State dismantles Marshall, 45-0 at Beaver Stadium. Penn State led from start to finish and never let Marshall within striking distance. Rocco Becht threw for 271 yards on 18 attempts with four touchdowns and lost 5 yards on two carries.
- PassCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 17/25, 102 YDS
- RushCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 13 CAR, 30 YDS
- RecToby Payne 8 REC, 55 YDS
- PassRocco Becht 13/18, 271 YDS, 4 TD
- RushCarson Hansen 11 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecKoby Howard 6 REC, 161 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPSU up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:35PSU +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #6 K.Howard caught at MAR25, for 42 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 4:49PSU +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at MAR28, for 25 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. Penn State?
Marshall 0, Penn State 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
| MRSH | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 147 | Total yards | 487 |
| 103 | Passing yards | 324 |
| 44 | Rushing yards | 163 |
| 11 | First downs | 25 |
| 1-11 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 19/28 | Comp/Att | 20/27 |
| 3.7 | Yards per pass | 12.0 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 23:47 | Possession | 36:13 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:16 MRSH punt on 4th & 1 at MRSH 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:59PSUCam Wallace 6 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–45
- Q3 6:16PSUQuinton Martin Jr. 6 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–38
- Q3 11:14PSUZay Robinson 39 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)0–31
- Q2 1:18PSUBenjamin Brahmer 8 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)0–24
- Q1 4:49PSUBrett Eskildsen 25 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)0–17
- Q1 8:35PSUKoby Howard 42 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)0–10
- Q1 12:26PSURyan Barker 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PSU Elo 1802, MRSH Elo 1478 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PSU -8.2 (69% to win) — 15.3 points clear of MRSH's market line of -23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MRSH | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.8 (#109) | CORE overall | +18.3 (#18) |
| -2 / +8 | offense / defense | +8 / -10 |
| 0.61 | points / drive | 3.79 |
| 2.96 | allowed / drive | 0.50 |
| 48% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Rocco Becht produced nine of Penn State's eleven explosive plays
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
The big plays only went one way
Penn State produced 11 plays of 15+ yards to Marshall's 1: Rocco Becht (involved in 9), Koby Howard (involved in 5) and Brett Eskildsen (involved in 2). Penn State scored on 58% of its drives to Marshall's 0%, led by Rocco Becht (24 pts), Koby Howard (6 pts) and Brett Eskildsen (6 pts). Stacked together, it was never close.
The difference-makers
Rocco Becht threw for 271 yards on 18 attempts with four touchdowns and lost 5 yards on two carries, with two third-down conversions and a hand in nine plays of 15 yards or more. Koby Howard caught six passes for 161 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with three third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Brett Eskildsen caught five passes for 48 yards, one of them for a touchdown. For Marshall, Joshon Barbie ran five times for 6 yards and caught three passes for 10 yards. Khalil Wilkins caught one pass for 6 yards. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson threw for 102 yards on 25 attempts and ran 13 times for 30 yards. Bryson Williams was the disruptive one for Penn State: 1 INT.
What Marshall has to fix
The problems had names: Anthony Quinn Jr. (1 lost fumble).
Who got home
Two names to keep, all for Penn State: Bryson Williams (1 INT) and Caleb Bacon (1 sack, 3 TFLs, 5.5 tackles).
How we got here
Penn State struck first through Ryan Barker, led 24-0 at the half and Penn State got the final points on a late touchdown by Cam Wallace.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for Penn State. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →