Minnesota vs. Penn State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Penn State gets at Minnesota: 50th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 105th at closing out passing downs. Minnesota projects no clear way in against Penn State. Penn State is also 56th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 103rd.
How
PSUattacks
MINN
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
PSU#50 of 138MINN#105 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
PSU#56 of 138MINN#103 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
PSU#42 of 138MINN#82 of 138
The two teams
Minnesota
Minnesota runs it: P.J. Fleck's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The way in is 116th in the push up front, and they are 110th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −36.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Minnesota has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Offensethe push the line gets#116projected
- Offenserunning it#110projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#105projected
Penn State
Penn State throws it: Matt Campbell's offenses have been pass-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 17th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Penn State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#17projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PSU Elo 1910, MINN Elo 1443 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PSU +0.2 (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MINN76th35thPSUPSU56th83rdMINNThrough the air
MINN27th11thPSUPSU35th42ndMINNOn the ground
MINN125th70thPSUPSU98th103rdMINNStaying on the field
MINN35th19thPSUPSU33rd83rdMINNTaking care of it
MINN31st30thPSUPSU1st88thMINN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPenn State leads 11–6 · Penn State has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| MINN | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.2 (#72) | CORE overall | +19.4 (#13) |
| -1 / -0 | offense / defense | +10 / -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Minnesota vs. Penn State?
Gridpex's model favors Minnesota with a 50% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Minnesota vs. Penn State?
The model projects Minnesota by 0.2.
What time is Minnesota vs. Penn State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Beaver Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →