Central Michigan vs. Ohio Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Ohio gets at Central Michigan: 24th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 72nd at generating havoc. Central Michigan projects no clear way in against Ohio. Ohio is also 21st in the push up front, against a unit 65th.
How
OHIOattacks
CMU
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
OHIO#24 of 138CMU#72 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
OHIO#21 of 138CMU#65 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
OHIO#32 of 138CMU#65 of 138
The two teams
Central Michigan
Central Michigan is in year 2 under Matt Drinkall. The way in is 115th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 104th at moving the ball on the ground.
Central Michigan has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#115projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#104projected
Ohio
Ohio is in year 1 under John Hauser. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at staying out of the backfield.
Ohio has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#4projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#24projected
- Offenserunning it#25projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1318, CMU Elo 1259 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -12.1 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
CMU130th128thOHIOOHIO115th52ndCMUThrough the air
CMU134th119thOHIOOHIO113th38thCMUOn the ground
CMU69th129thOHIOOHIO85th102ndCMUStaying on the field
CMU118th137thOHIOOHIO81st103rdCMUTaking care of it
CMU129th118thOHIOOHIO31st14thCMU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesCentral Michigan leads 27–7–2 · Ohio has won 2 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| CMU | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.4 (#116) | CORE overall | -9.9 (#109) |
| -11 / +1 | offense / defense | -2 / +8 |
| 0.78 | points / drive | 2.00 |
| 4.11 | allowed / drive | 4.46 |
| 56% | three-and-outs | 30% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Central Michigan vs. Ohio?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio with a 78% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Central Michigan vs. Ohio?
The model projects Ohio by 12.1.
What time is Central Michigan vs. Ohio and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Peden Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →