#4Spencer Brown

RB·UAB·2020 20171.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Spencer Brown is a 2-year Featured Back for UAB. Spencer's 2017 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 234 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Spencer Brown's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2017

★★★★★

2-Star or below

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.7583
National rank: #3,925
High school: Mortimer Jordan
Hometown: Morris, AL

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2017 Production

Rushing

1329 Rush yards10 Rush TD250 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

4 Receptions42 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume81
Explosiveness46
Consistency55
Receiving5

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency55th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.85 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Rice (SP+ -24).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsAlabama A&M	W38-7	—	7	42	6.0	1	—	—	—	0.52
2	@Ball State	L31-51	-19.7	17	151	8.9	0	—	—	—	0.56
3	vsCoastal Carolina	W30-23	—	16	51	3.2	2	—	—	—	0.24
4	@North Texas	L43-46	-4.5	17	50	2.9	1	—	—	—	-0.00
6	vsLouisiana Tech	W23-22	-5.5	26	168	6.5	1	1	2	0	0.24
7	vsMiddle Tennessee	W25-23	-4.9	31	167	5.4	1	—	—	—	0.23
8	@Charlotte	L24-25	-26.1	16	71	4.4	0	2	14	0	-0.15
9	@Southern Miss	W30-12	-3.4	33	209	6.3	1	—	—	—	0.23
10	vsRice	W52-21	-23.6	17	140	8.2	3	—	—	—	0.85
11	@UTSA	W24-19	-2.5	27	128	4.7	0	—	—	—	-0.03
12	@Florida	L7-36	10.1	8	17	2.1	0	—	—	—	-0.28
13	vsUTEP	W28-7	-27.4	22	98	4.5	0	—	—	—	0.04
1	vsOhio	L6-41	3.3	13	37	2.8	0	1	26	0	0.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

28.5%

Passing plays

0.8%

Rushing plays

48.8%

Standard downs

34.1%

Passing downs

15.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.34
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.30 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2020 · 21 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	UAB	1.9	0.230	—	57.3
2020	UAB	1.3	0.230	—	39.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.