#7Ryquell Armstead

RB·Temple·2018 20162.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Ryquell Armstead is a 2-year Featured Back for Temple. Ryquell's 2018 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 214 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ryquell Armstead's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1098 Rush yards13 Rush TD210 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

8 Receptions52 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency25
Volume87
Explosiveness44
Consistency51
Receiving23

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency51th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Houston (SP+ 2).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsVillanova	L17-19	—	14	31	2.2	0	—	—	—	-0.31
2	vsBuffalo	L29-36	-1.1	14	107	7.6	0	—	—	—	0.29
3	@Maryland	W35-14	3.0	26	118	4.5	0	1	-9	0	0.07
4	vsTulsa	W31-17	-11.2	24	108	4.5	1	1	15	0	0.20
5	@Boston College	L35-45	2.4	24	171	7.1	4	2	16	0	0.58
6	vsEast Carolina	W49-6	-14.9	20	91	4.6	1	—	—	—	0.23
10	@UCF	L40-52	16.5	27	142	5.3	0	1	3	0	-0.01
11	@Houston	W59-49	2.3	30	210	7.0	6	—	—	—	0.67
12	vsSouth Florida	W27-17	-1.2	26	64	2.5	1	2	24	0	-0.25
13	@UConn	W57-7	-26.4	5	56	11.2	0	1	3	0	0.40

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

30.6%

Passing plays

3.9%

Rushing plays

54.7%

Standard downs

36.8%

Passing downs

16.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.08 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Temple	2.9	0.410	—	63.6
2018	Temple	2.9	0.320	-0.09	66.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.