#24Paul Perkins

RB·UCLA·2015 20143.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Paul Perkins is a 2-year Featured Back for UCLA. Paul's 2015 season ranks in the 53th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 266 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Paul Perkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1343 Rush yards14 Rush TD237 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

30 Receptions242 Rec yards1 Rec TD8.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency53
Volume81
Explosiveness54
Consistency71
Receiving51

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)53th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.69 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UNLV (SP+ -16).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Royce Freeman	Oregon	2015	275	0.360	5.1	99.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsVirginia	W34-16	1.4	14	59	4.2	0	5	58	0	0.02
2	@UNLV	W37-3	-16.2	18	151	8.4	2	2	24	0	0.69
3	vsBYU	W24-23	8.7	26	219	8.4	1	—	—	—	0.54
4	@Arizona	W56-30	4.7	24	85	3.5	3	1	17	0	0.22
5	vsArizona State	L23-38	10.2	18	63	3.5	1	1	-3	0	-0.11
7	@Stanford	L35-56	22.8	14	104	7.4	1	2	16	0	0.40
8	vsCalifornia	W40-24	12.1	11	73	6.6	0	2	13	0	0.38
9	vsColorado	W35-31	-4.0	12	118	9.8	1	4	41	1	0.59
10	@Oregon State	W41-0	-10.1	23	89	3.9	1	—	—	—	0.11
11	vsWashington State	L27-31	4.2	20	121	6.1	0	4	28	0	0.18
12	@Utah	W17-9	11.0	28	98	3.5	1	1	4	0	-0.07
13	@USC	L21-40	16.8	17	95	5.6	2	5	36	0	0.08
1	vsNebraska	L29-37	11.1	12	68	5.7	1	3	8	0	0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

28.2%

Passing plays

7.9%

Rushing plays

53.3%

Standard downs

33.6%

Passing downs

16.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.55
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	UCLA	4.6	0.360	—	88.6
2015	UCLA	3.9	0.320	-0.04	80.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.