#21Royce Freeman

RB·Oregon·2017 2015 20145.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Royce Freeman is a 3-year Featured Back for Oregon. Royce's 2015 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 307 plays — a average rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Royce Freeman's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2014

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9831
National rank: #34
High school: Imperial
Hometown: Imperial, CA

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2015 Production

Rushing

1836 Rush yards17 Rush TD283 Carries6.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

26 Receptions348 Rec yards2 Rec TD13.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency63
Volume88
Explosiveness70
Consistency85
Receiving42

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.86 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Eastern Washington.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2018	297	0.360	5.0	106.9
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2017	307	0.350	4.8	107.4
Mohamed Ibrahim	Minnesota	2022	314	0.330	5.3	103.6
Jaret Patterson	Buffalo	2019	319	0.370	5.6	118.0
Blake Corum	Michigan	2023	283	0.380	5.1	107.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsEastern Washington	W61-42	—	21	180	8.6	3	2	18	0	0.86
2	@Michigan State	L28-31	15.6	24	92	3.8	1	3	34	0	0.03
3	vsGeorgia State	W61-28	-6.7	10	101	10.1	1	2	3	0	0.72
4	vsUtah	L20-62	11.0	14	77	5.5	0	2	46	1	0.46
5	@Colorado	W41-24	-4.0	27	163	6.0	2	3	32	0	0.44
6	vsWashington State	L38-45	4.2	27	246	9.1	2	3	46	1	0.48
7	@Washington	W26-20	9.7	27	138	5.1	0	—	—	—	0.23
9	@Arizona State	W61-55	10.2	15	110	7.3	2	3	37	0	0.45
10	vsCalifornia	W44-28	12.1	29	180	6.2	0	1	8	0	0.31
11	@Stanford	W38-36	22.8	16	105	6.6	1	—	—	—	0.16
12	vsUSC	W48-28	16.8	20	147	7.3	0	2	50	0	0.35
13	vsOregon State	W52-42	-10.1	27	167	6.2	2	3	51	0	0.51
1	vsTCU	L41-47	19.0	26	130	5.0	3	2	23	0	0.47

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

30.9%

Passing plays

7.1%

Rushing plays

48.5%

Standard downs

36.2%

Passing downs

18.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.67
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.10 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2017 · 40 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Oregon	4.3	0.370	—	95.5
2015	Oregon	5.1	0.360	-0.01	99.0
2017	Oregon	2.5	0.270	-0.09	62.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.