#9Nick Mullens

QB·Southern Miss·201511.8 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Nick Mullens is a Clutch Passer for Southern Miss. Nick's 2015 season ranks in the 75th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 548 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nick Mullens's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

331/521 Comp/Att4476 Pass yards38 Pass TD12 INT63.5% Comp %

Rushing

-92 Rush yards3 Rush TD43 Carries-2.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency75
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency80
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)75th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (75th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Rice (SP+ -15).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMississippi State	L16-34	15.1	30/44	311	1	2	39.9	-29	0	0.08
2	vsAustin Peay	W52-6	—	22/40	275	3	1	63.5	2	1	0.24
3	@Texas State	W56-50	-15.5	19/27	333	4	0	96.5	-6	0	0.95
4	@Nebraska	L28-36	11.1	26/41	447	2	0	68.8	-25	0	0.52
5	vsNorth Texas	W49-14	-25.0	27/36	325	4	0	91.2	21	1	0.66
6	@Marshall	L10-31	3.5	29/58	314	1	1	29.6	-21	0	0.03
7	vsUTSA	W32-10	-17.7	23/31	343	2	3	71.7	3	0	0.43
8	@Charlotte	W44-10	-21.7	24/38	265	4	0	82.3	10	0	0.43
9	vsUTEP	W34-13	-19.5	23/33	277	4	0	88.2	-8	0	0.60
11	@Rice	W65-10	-14.6	23/31	386	5	0	95.9	—	—	0.96
12	vsOld Dominion	W56-31	-14.8	21/37	302	2	1	62.7	-17	1	0.43
13	@Louisiana Tech	W58-24	8.3	24/37	386	3	1	92.2	-19	0	0.69
14	@Western Kentucky	L28-45	10.8	15/30	181	1	3	45.3	21	0	-0.10
1	vsWashington	L31-44	9.7	25/38	331	2	0	70.3	-24	0	0.37

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.9%

Passing plays

97.8%

Rushing plays

5.0%

Standard downs

45.9%

Passing downs

72.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.63
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / -0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.