#10Nicholas Singleton

RB·Penn State·2024 20223.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Nicholas Singleton is a 2-year Explosive Back for Penn State. Nicholas's 2022 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 167 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nicholas Singleton's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Rushing

1052 Rush yards12 Rush TD155 Carries6.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

11 Receptions85 Rec yards1 Rec TD7.7 Yards/rec

Returns

14 Kick returns349 KR yards1 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs RB peers

Efficiency70
Volume55
Explosiveness76
Consistency35
Receiving39

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency35th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.27 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Utah (SP+ 19).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Purdue	W35-31	7.7	9	22	2.4	0	—	—	—	-0.32
2	vsOhio	W46-10	-4.6	10	179	17.9	2	1	0	0	0.72
3	@Auburn	W41-12	5.1	10	124	12.4	2	—	—	—	0.64
4	vsCentral Michigan	W33-14	-14.0	12	42	3.5	0	1	0	0	-0.14
5	vsNorthwestern	W17-7	-13.4	21	87	4.1	1	1	11	0	-0.19
7	@Michigan	L17-41	32.0	6	19	3.2	0	—	—	—	-0.33
8	vsMinnesota	W45-17	16.0	13	79	6.1	2	2	28	0	0.29
9	vsOhio State	L31-44	31.1	14	45	3.2	0	1	6	0	-0.32
10	@Indiana	W45-14	-7.1	16	73	4.6	1	—	—	—	0.26
11	vsMaryland	W30-0	11.2	11	122	11.1	2	1	5	0	0.86
12	@Rutgers	W55-10	-9.1	9	62	6.9	0	1	5	0	0.01
13	vsMichigan State	W35-16	1.2	17	78	4.6	0	3	30	1	0.26
1	vsUtah	W35-21	19.2	7	120	17.1	2	—	—	—	0.96

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

19.1%

Passing plays

4.1%

Rushing plays

33.3%

Standard downs

23.3%

Passing downs

9.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.04
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.14 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 — 2024 · 28 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2022	Penn State	3.3	0.360	—	61.6
2024	Penn State	3.0	0.390	+0.03	72.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.