#21Makhi Hughes

RB·Tulane·20242.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Makhi Hughes is a Featured Back for Tulane. Makhi's 2024 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 277 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Makhi Hughes's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

1401 Rush yards15 Rush TD265 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

19 Receptions176 Rec yards2 Rec TD9.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume92
Explosiveness46
Consistency64
Receiving40

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.52 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Temple (SP+ -20).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSE Louisiana	W52-0	—	14	59	4.2	1	—	—	—	-0.02
2	vsKansas State	L27-34	14.1	21	128	6.1	1	5	37	0	0.18
3	@Oklahoma	L19-34	9.5	19	71	3.7	0	2	13	1	-0.05
4	@Louisiana	W41-33	4.8	23	166	7.2	1	—	—	—	0.46
5	vsSouth Florida	W45-10	-2.3	17	61	3.6	2	1	8	0	0.13
6	@UAB	W71-20	-11.3	15	119	7.9	2	1	15	0	0.48
8	vsRice	W24-10	-11.4	27	140	5.2	1	1	29	1	0.11
9	@North Texas	W45-37	-4.5	30	195	6.5	1	1	8	0	0.22
10	@Charlotte	W34-3	-15.3	27	117	4.3	2	2	15	0	0.28
11	vsTemple	W52-6	-20.3	19	153	8.1	2	—	—	—	0.52
12	@Navy	W35-0	3.5	22	82	3.7	2	1	3	0	0.17
14	vsMemphis	L24-34	9.6	9	15	1.7	0	2	26	0	-0.23
15	@Army	L14-35	9.2	14	66	4.7	0	3	22	0	0.06
20	vsFlorida	L8-33	13.8	8	29	3.6	0	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

32.3%

Passing plays

7.1%

Rushing plays

47.8%

Standard downs

34.8%

Passing downs

26.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.33
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.65 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.