#7Lincoln Pare

RB·Texas State·20252.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Lincoln Pare is a Pass-Catching Back for Texas State. Lincoln's 2025 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 239 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Lincoln Pare's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

1129 Rush yards12 Rush TD211 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

37 Receptions311 Rec yards2 Rec TD8.4 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns13 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency70
Volume76
Explosiveness48
Consistency64
Receiving69

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.19 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.12 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Eastern Michigan (SP+ -15).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Royce Freeman	Oregon	2015	275	0.360	5.1	99.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsEastern Michigan	W52-27	-14.7	12	167	13.9	1	1	20	0	1.12
2	@UTSA	W43-36	3.7	21	71	3.4	1	3	13	0	0.09
3	@Arizona State	L15-34	3.9	13	61	4.7	0	4	36	0	0.34
4	vsNicholls	W35-3	—	15	64	4.3	1	1	5	0	0.19
6	@Arkansas State	L30-31	-8.8	21	105	5.0	2	2	39	0	0.18
7	vsTroy	L41-48	-4.8	22	113	5.1	3	1	8	0	0.34
8	@Marshall	L37-40	-4.5	14	27	1.9	1	5	44	0	-0.03
10	vsJames Madison	L20-52	12.3	12	40	3.3	0	2	8	0	-0.21
11	@Louisiana	L39-42	-10.1	10	89	8.9	1	7	50	0	0.55
12	@Southern Miss	W41-14	-7.1	21	118	5.6	1	1	5	0	0.23
13	vsUL Monroe	W31-14	-21.6	19	76	4.0	0	5	37	1	0.23
14	vsSouth Alabama	W49-26	-12.7	20	92	4.6	0	4	40	1	0.15
20	vsRice	W41-10	-14.8	11	106	9.6	1	1	6	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.5%

Passing plays

10.1%

Rushing plays

38.7%

Standard downs

31.3%

Passing downs

14.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.27
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.