#11Kyle Trask

QB·Florida·2020 201916.3 pts line value1st Round

Kyle Trask is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Florida. Kyle's 2020 season ranks in the 90th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 486 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kyle Trask's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

301/437 Comp/Att4283 Pass yards43 Pass TD8 INT68.9% Comp %

Rushing

50 Rush yards3 Rush TD64 Carries0.8 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts32 Punt yards32.0 Yards/punt32 Long1 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency90
Volume100
Dual-Threat37
Consistency92
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)90th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency92th %ile · elite

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.83 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Arkansas (SP+ 2).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4
Dillon Gabriel	Oklahoma	2023	473	0.732	16.1	346.4
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Bo Nix	Oregon	2023	540	0.722	16.7	390.0
Justin Fields	Ohio State	2019	540	0.713	17.0	385.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
4	@Ole Miss	W51-35	4.8	30/42	416	6	0	—	2	0	0.71
5	vsSouth Carolina	W38-24	-2.4	21/29	268	4	1	—	22	0	0.47
6	@Texas A&M	L38-41	16.2	23/32	312	4	0	—	4	0	0.44
9	vsMissouri	W41-17	-1.0	21/36	345	4	1	—	47	0	0.38
10	vsGeorgia	W44-28	19.1	30/43	474	4	1	—	-5	0	0.44
11	vsArkansas	W63-35	1.6	23/29	356	6	0	—	8	0	0.83
12	@Vanderbilt	W38-17	-16.8	26/35	383	3	0	—	7	0	0.60
13	vsKentucky	W34-10	2.2	21/27	256	3	0	—	3	0	0.54
14	@Tennessee	W31-19	0.9	35/49	433	4	0	—	-10	0	0.51
15	vsLSU	L34-37	6.0	29/47	474	2	2	—	-28	2	0.48
16	vsAlabama	L46-52	28.3	26/40	408	3	0	—	0	1	0.38
1	vsOklahoma	L20-55	17.8	16/28	158	0	3	21.7	0	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

61.9%

Passing plays

95.6%

Rushing plays

15.1%

Standard downs

58.9%

Passing downs

70.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.38
Passing downs: 0.80
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.55 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Florida	8.5	0.570	—	212.0
2020	Florida	16.3	0.648	+0.08	347.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.