#1Justin Fields

QB·Ohio State·2020 201917.0 pts line value1st Round

Justin Fields is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Ohio State. Justin's 2019 season ranks in the 90th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 467 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justin Fields's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

238/354 Comp/Att3273 Pass yards41 Pass TD3 INT67.2% Comp %

Rushing

484 Rush yards10 Rush TD137 Carries3.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency90
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency87
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)90th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.15 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Rutgers (SP+ -15).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
C.J. Stroud	Ohio State	2022	476	0.746	17.6	355.2
Dillon Gabriel	Oklahoma	2023	473	0.732	16.1	346.4
Jayden Daniels	LSU	2023	461	0.783	17.5	360.8
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4
Bo Nix	Oregon	2023	540	0.722	16.7	390.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsFlorida Atlantic	W45-21	-0.6	18/25	234	4	0	96.1	61	1	0.45
2	vsCincinnati	W42-0	9.1	20/25	224	2	0	89.5	42	2	0.52
3	@Indiana	W51-10	12.8	14/24	199	3	0	87.7	11	1	0.51
4	vsMiami (OH)	W76-5	-9.2	14/21	223	4	0	92.1	36	2	0.84
5	@Nebraska	W48-7	2.6	15/21	212	3	0	99.0	72	1	0.60
6	vsMichigan State	W34-10	7.2	17/25	206	2	1	78.1	61	1	0.40
8	@Northwestern	W52-3	-5.5	18/23	194	4	0	91.6	8	0	0.53
9	vsWisconsin	W38-7	20.3	12/22	167	2	0	71.1	28	1	0.47
11	vsMaryland	W73-14	-6.3	16/25	200	3	0	—	28	1	0.69
12	@Rutgers	W56-21	-14.6	15/19	305	4	0	—	30	0	1.15
13	vsPenn State	W28-17	24.3	16/22	188	2	0	—	68	0	0.29
14	@Michigan	W56-27	20.7	14/25	302	4	0	—	25	0	0.64
15	vsWisconsin	W34-21	20.3	19/31	299	3	0	—	1	0	0.36
1	vsClemson	L23-29	28.1	30/46	320	1	2	—	13	0	0.19

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

45.2%

Passing plays

87.2%

Rushing plays

17.1%

Standard downs

40.1%

Passing downs

59.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.38
Passing downs: 0.76
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.53 / 0.49

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Ohio State	17.0	0.713	—	385.1
2020	Ohio State	12.7	0.592	-0.12	195.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.