#6Blake Sims

QB·Alabama·201415.4 pts line value1st Round

Blake Sims is a Dual-Threat QB for Alabama. Blake's 2014 season ranks in the 95th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 465 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Blake Sims's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

252/391 Comp/Att3487 Pass yards28 Pass TD10 INT64.5% Comp %

Rushing

350 Rush yards7 Rush TD83 Carries4.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency95
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency82
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)95th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.24 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.05 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Florida Atlantic (SP+ -10).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Dillon Gabriel	Oklahoma	2023	473	0.732	16.1	346.4
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kyle Trask	Florida	2020	536	0.648	16.3	347.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsWest Virginia	W33-23	8.4	24/33	250	0	1	77.1	42	0	0.50
2	vsFlorida Atlantic	W41-0	-10.4	12/14	228	2	0	97.8	14	1	1.05
3	vsSouthern Miss	W52-12	-15.9	12/17	168	2	0	97.4	46	1	0.84
4	vsFlorida	W42-21	17.3	23/33	445	4	1	81.5	39	0	0.97
6	@Ole Miss	L17-23	20.7	19/31	228	0	1	66.8	8	1	0.24
7	@Arkansas	W14-13	12.2	11/21	161	2	0	27.3	5	0	0.27
8	vsTexas A&M	W59-0	20.2	16/27	268	3	0	86.7	54	1	0.74
9	@Tennessee	W34-20	12.2	14/24	286	2	0	96.9	42	1	0.82
11	@LSU	W20-13	21.5	20/45	209	2	0	42.3	12	0	0.13
12	vsMississippi State	W25-20	22.2	19/31	211	1	0	72.0	18	0	0.28
13	vsWestern Carolina	W48-14	—	17/25	222	2	1	61.1	-1	0	0.37
14	vsAuburn	W55-44	24.2	20/27	312	4	3	90.1	23	1	0.78
15	vsMissouri	W42-13	19.3	23/27	262	2	0	69.2	19	0	0.56
1	vsOhio State	L35-42	25.8	22/36	237	2	3	25.3	29	1	0.02

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

45.6%

Passing plays

86.2%

Rushing plays

12.7%

Standard downs

39.9%

Passing downs

62.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.36
Passing downs: 0.71
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.46 / 0.63

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.