#11Kyle Trask

QB·Florida·2020 20198.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Kyle Trask is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Florida. Kyle's 2019 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 402 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kyle Trask's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

237/354 Comp/Att2941 Pass yards25 Pass TD7 INT66.9% Comp %

Rushing

8 Rush yards4 Rush TD63 Carries0.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency70
Volume100
Dual-Threat46
Consistency87
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.11 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.88 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UT Martin.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	vsUT Martin	W45-0	—	4/5	40	1	0	95.2	—	—	0.88
3	@Kentucky	W29-21	9.1	9/13	126	0	0	86.1	4	1	0.43
4	vsTennessee	W34-3	10.8	20/28	293	2	2	70.7	-6	0	0.31
5	vsTowson	W38-0	—	18/20	188	2	0	93.6	-12	1	0.61
6	vsAuburn	W24-13	21.0	19/31	234	2	0	28.9	-35	0	0.19
7	@LSU	L28-42	33.1	23/39	310	3	1	82.9	21	0	0.38
8	@South Carolina	W38-27	4.8	21/33	200	4	1	59.7	-3	0	0.32
10	vsGeorgia	L17-24	26.8	21/33	257	2	0	—	-22	0	0.26
11	vsVanderbilt	W56-0	-10.4	25/37	363	3	2	—	25	1	0.35
12	@Missouri	W23-6	7.8	23/35	282	2	0	—	-17	0	0.26
14	vsFlorida State	W40-17	1.8	30/41	343	3	0	—	16	0	0.54
1	vsVirginia	W36-28	6.3	24/39	305	1	1	—	37	1	0.41

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.8%

Passing plays

81.5%

Rushing plays

12.4%

Standard downs

46.4%

Passing downs

61.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Florida	8.5	0.570	—	212.0
2020	Florida	16.3	0.648	+0.08	347.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.