#23Jordan Marshall

RB·Michigan·20251.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jordan Marshall is a Explosive Back for Michigan. Jordan's 2025 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 158 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jordan Marshall's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

932 Rush yards10 Rush TD150 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

9 Receptions92 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency57
Volume67
Explosiveness64
Consistency58
Receiving35

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency58th %ile · average

Key findings

▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.14 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.83 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Nebraska (SP+ 6).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNew Mexico	W34-17	0.9	11	29	2.6	0	1	5	0	-0.10
2	@Oklahoma	L13-24	18.3	9	28	3.1	0	—	—	—	-0.17
3	vsCentral Michigan	W63-3	-8.8	10	52	5.2	2	—	—	—	0.08
4	@Nebraska	W30-27	6.2	6	80	13.3	1	—	—	—	0.83
6	vsWisconsin	W24-10	-4.4	9	44	4.9	0	1	8	0	0.17
7	@USC	L13-31	16.9	14	68	4.9	0	1	16	0	0.02
8	vsWashington	W24-7	18.4	25	133	5.3	1	3	20	0	0.29
9	@Michigan State	W31-20	-3.4	15	110	7.3	1	—	—	—	0.38
10	vsPurdue	W21-16	-6.1	25	185	7.4	3	1	25	0	0.55
12	vsNorthwestern	W24-22	5.8	19	142	7.5	2	1	8	0	0.46
14	vsOhio State	L9-27	30.1	7	61	8.7	0	1	10	0	-0.13

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.5%

Passing plays

4.5%

Rushing plays

37.7%

Standard downs

26.7%

Passing downs

15.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.08
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.