#27Jay Ajayi

RB·Boise State·2014 20131.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jay Ajayi is a 2-year Featured Back for Boise State. Jay's 2013 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 226 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jay Ajayi's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Rushing

1425 Rush yards18 Rush TD249 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

22 Receptions222 Rec yards1 Rec TD10.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume72
Explosiveness54
Consistency43
Receiving33

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency43th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.08 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.39 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Southern Miss (SP+ -25).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Washington	L6-38	20.5	23	93	4.0	0	1	1	0	0.01
2	vsUT Martin	W63-14	—	15	80	5.3	2	—	—	—	0.04
3	vsAir Force	W42-20	-16.9	17	125	7.4	4	—	—	—	-0.04
4	@Fresno State	L40-41	8.8	20	54	2.7	1	—	—	—	-0.26
5	vsSouthern Miss	W60-7	-24.5	14	83	5.9	1	—	—	—	0.39
7	@Utah State	W34-23	4.2	22	109	5.0	1	1	8	0	0.09
8	vsNevada	W34-17	-16.8	24	222	9.3	3	3	9	0	0.19
9	@BYU	L20-37	10.0	23	151	6.6	0	3	8	0	0.13
10	@Colorado State	W42-30	3.0	13	91	7.0	0	—	—	—	0.25
12	vsWyoming	W48-7	-15.3	11	70	6.4	3	2	3	0	-0.12
13	@San Diego State	L31-34	-4.8	22	103	4.7	1	2	55	0	-0.01
14	vsNew Mexico	W45-17	-14.9	22	147	6.7	1	4	105	1	0.31
1	vsOregon State	L23-38	11.9	23	97	4.2	1	6	33	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

25.1%

Passing plays

4.6%

Rushing plays

43.7%

Standard downs

28.1%

Passing downs

17.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.07
Passing downs: 0.20
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.48 / 0.06

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Boise State	1.3	0.050	—	10.6
2014	Boise State	6.7	0.370	+0.32	136.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.