#16Jared Goff

QB·California·2015 2014 201312.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jared Goff is a 3-year Clutch Passer for California. Jared's 2014 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 533 plays — a average rate for the QB. Jared's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jared Goff's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2013

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9154
National rank: #218
High school: Marin Catholic
Hometown: Greenbrae, CA

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2014 Production

Passing

316/509 Comp/Att3973 Pass yards35 Pass TD7 INT62.1% Comp %

Rushing

-44 Rush yards0 Rush TD55 Carries-0.8 Yards/carry

Punting

3 Punts122 Punt yards40.7 Yards/punt50 Long2 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency57
Volume100
Dual-Threat16
Consistency78
Clutch78

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.34 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.91 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Sacramento State.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
J.T. Barrett	Ohio State	2017	576	0.593	14.1	341.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	EPA/play
1	@Northwestern	W31-24	1.5	21/34	281	3	1	83.1	-1	0.51
2	vsSacramento State	W55-14	—	17/22	229	4	0	97.3	17	0.91
4	@Arizona	L45-49	7.6	18/30	380	3	1	82.2	-28	0.54
5	vsColorado	W59-56	-5.0	24/42	458	7	1	88.9	-12	0.71
6	@Washington State	W60-59	-1.7	37/53	527	5	0	90.7	-9	0.61
7	vsWashington	L7-31	7.8	35/51	304	0	0	26.6	-39	-0.01
8	vsUCLA	L34-36	17.7	25/41	303	2	1	63.2	-1	0.13
9	vsOregon	L41-59	24.7	32/52	360	2	0	56.8	-1	0.29
10	@Oregon State	W45-31	3.2	24/47	277	1	0	56.9	1	0.15
12	@USC	L30-38	17.1	29/46	279	3	0	46.9	-3	0.20
13	vsStanford	L17-38	21.4	16/31	182	1	2	28.2	9	0.05
14	vsBYU	L35-42	10.2	38/60	393	4	1	78.0	23	0.40

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.1%

Passing plays

95.0%

Rushing plays

7.9%

Standard downs

48.7%

Passing downs

76.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.27
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / -0.02

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2015 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	California	1.5	0.200	—	90.0
2014	California	12.1	0.510	+0.31	275.4
2015	California	15.7	0.610	+0.10	341.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.