#16Jared Goff

QB·California·2015 2014 201315.7 pts line value1st Round

Jared Goff is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for California. Jared's 2015 season ranks in the 85th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 558 plays — a above-average rate for the QB. Jared's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jared Goff's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2013

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9154
National rank: #218
High school: Marin Catholic
Hometown: Greenbrae, CA

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2015 Production

Passing

341/529 Comp/Att4719 Pass yards43 Pass TD13 INT64.5% Comp %

Rushing

-8 Rush yards0 Rush TD56 Carries-0.1 Yards/carry

Punting

6 Punts209 Punt yards34.8 Yards/punt45 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency85
Volume100
Dual-Threat97
Consistency85
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)85th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (85th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.86 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Air Force (SP+ 5).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kyle Trask	Florida	2020	536	0.648	16.3	347.5
Will Howard	Ohio State	2024	565	0.670	14.5	378.8
J.T. Barrett	Ohio State	2017	576	0.593	14.1	341.6
Michael Penix Jr.	Washington	2023	588	0.650	14.2	382.2
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsGrambling	W73-14	—	24/32	309	3	1	90.4	—	—	0.58
2	vsSan Diego State	W35-7	8.0	17/24	321	3	1	86.7	-21	0	0.70
3	@Texas	W45-44	3.7	27/37	268	3	0	94.6	14	0	0.60
4	@Washington	W30-24	9.7	24/40	342	2	1	64.9	-8	0	0.36
5	vsWashington State	W34-28	4.2	33/45	390	4	1	82.8	-32	0	0.43
6	@Utah	L24-30	11.0	25/47	340	2	5	31.3	30	0	0.10
8	@UCLA	L24-40	18.6	32/53	295	3	0	53.2	9	0	0.22
9	vsUSC	L21-27	16.8	23/31	277	2	2	83.2	23	0	0.29
10	@Oregon	L28-44	15.9	18/41	329	2	1	46.5	-17	0	0.10
11	vsOregon State	W54-24	-10.1	26/37	453	6	1	78.5	-13	0	0.63
12	@Stanford	L22-35	22.8	37/54	386	2	0	78.1	-8	0	0.36
13	vsArizona State	W48-46	10.2	30/51	542	5	0	89.4	31	0	0.65
1	vsAir Force	W55-36	4.7	25/37	467	6	0	97.1	-16	0	0.86

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.1%

Passing plays

96.2%

Rushing plays

8.2%

Standard downs

51.6%

Passing downs

75.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.71
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.44 / 0.39

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2015 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	California	1.5	0.200	—	90.0
2014	California	12.1	0.510	+0.31	275.4
2015	California	15.7	0.610	+0.10	341.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.