#3Jake Browning

QB·Washington·2018 20166.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jake Browning is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Washington. Jake's 2018 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 459 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jake Browning's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

251/386 Comp/Att3173 Pass yards16 Pass TD10 INT65.0% Comp %

Rushing

127 Rush yards4 Rush TD83 Carries1.5 Yards/carry

Punting

2 Punts69 Punt yards34.5 Yards/punt35 Long1 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency38
Volume100
Dual-Threat87
Consistency83
Clutch57

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.73 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Oregon State (SP+ -16).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAuburn	L16-21	23.6	17/30	277	1	1	-5	0	0.26
2	vsNorth Dakota	W45-3	—	23/37	313	2	2	21	0	0.22
3	@Utah	W21-7	16.8	14/24	155	1	1	-14	1	0.36
4	vsArizona State	W27-20	5.0	15/22	202	3	0	-7	0	0.57
5	vsBYU	W35-7	6.2	23/25	277	1	0	4	1	0.67
6	@UCLA	W31-24	-0.4	18/26	265	1	1	49	1	0.51
7	@Oregon	L27-30	7.3	15/25	243	1	1	5	0	0.49
8	vsColorado	W27-13	-0.7	15/25	150	1	1	25	0	0.11
9	@California	L10-12	3.9	11/21	148	1	1	11	0	0.21
10	vsStanford	W27-23	13.0	16/27	194	1	0	-10	1	0.39
12	vsOregon State	W42-23	-16.0	17/23	242	3	0	30	0	0.73
13	@Washington State	W28-15	11.3	11/14	207	0	1	5	0	0.51
14	vsUtah	W10-3	16.8	21/33	187	0	1	15	0	0.05
1	vsOhio State	L23-28	24.1	35/54	313	0	0	-2	0	0.08

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.1%

Passing plays

95.7%

Rushing plays

12.1%

Standard downs

37.4%

Passing downs

71.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.39
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 28 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Washington	11.1	0.640	—	254.7
2018	Washington	6.5	0.470	-0.17	208.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.