#3Jake Browning

QB·Washington·2018 201611.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jake Browning is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Washington. Jake's 2016 season ranks in the 85th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 418 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jake Browning's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

243/391 Comp/Att3430 Pass yards43 Pass TD9 INT62.1% Comp %

Rushing

45 Rush yards4 Rush TD65 Carries0.7 Yards/carry

Punting

3 Punts122 Punt yards40.7 Yards/punt50 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency85
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency80
Clutch48

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)85th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (85th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.35 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.00 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Oregon (SP+ 6).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsRutgers	W48-13	-14.9	18/27	287	3	1	97.2	-9	0	0.43
2	vsIdaho	W59-14	-8.6	23/28	294	5	0	77.0	-1	0	0.73
3	vsPortland State	W41-3	—	12/19	163	4	0	95.5	1	0	0.82
4	@Arizona	W35-28	-4.5	14/21	160	2	1	84.7	28	1	0.42
5	vsStanford	W44-6	16.4	15/21	210	3	0	97.9	8	0	0.88
6	@Oregon	W70-21	6.1	22/28	304	6	0	96.4	21	2	1.00
8	vsOregon State	W41-17	-4.6	14/28	291	3	0	94.3	21	1	0.55
9	@Utah	W31-24	10.9	12/20	186	2	1	53.5	-6	0	0.53
10	@California	W66-27	2.4	19/28	378	6	0	98.4	14	0	0.94
11	vsUSC	L13-26	23.6	17/36	259	1	2	29.0	-36	0	0.21
12	vsArizona State	W44-18	-3.0	27/44	338	2	2	42.3	19	0	0.24
13	@Washington State	W45-17	6.2	21/29	292	3	0	93.1	4	0	0.68
14	vsColorado	W41-10	6.3	9/24	118	2	0	21.6	2	0	0.03
1	vsAlabama	L7-24	31.7	20/38	150	1	2	14.2	-21	0	-0.25

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.8%

Passing plays

95.8%

Rushing plays

8.2%

Standard downs

43.0%

Passing downs

60.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.44
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.44 / 0.62

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 28 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Washington	11.1	0.640	—	254.7
2018	Washington	6.5	0.470	-0.17	208.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.