#31DJ Giddens

RB·Kansas State·2024 20232.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

DJ Giddens is a 2-year Featured Back for Kansas State. DJ's 2024 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 219 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So DJ Giddens's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

1343 Rush yards7 Rush TD205 Carries6.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

21 Receptions258 Rec yards1 Rec TD12.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency20
Volume84
Explosiveness72
Consistency74
Receiving39

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.22 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Oklahoma State (SP+ -3).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsUT Martin	W41-6	—	13	124	9.5	0	3	6	0	0.35
2	@Tulane	W34-27	5.7	19	114	6.0	0	4	63	1	0.26
3	vsArizona	W31-7	-2.8	17	86	5.1	1	—	—	—	0.45
4	@BYU	L9-38	15.3	19	93	4.9	0	—	—	—	0.13
5	vsOklahoma State	W42-20	-2.6	15	187	12.5	1	1	22	0	0.64
7	@Colorado	W31-28	8.1	25	182	7.3	0	2	38	0	0.38
8	@West Virginia	W45-18	2.1	19	57	3.0	2	1	53	0	0.10
9	vsKansas	W29-27	4.9	18	102	5.7	0	1	15	0	0.03
10	@Houston	L19-24	-8.2	17	50	2.9	1	5	16	0	-0.07
12	vsArizona State	L14-24	9.4	14	133	9.5	0	1	6	0	0.38
13	vsCincinnati	W41-15	-0.1	15	143	9.5	2	3	39	0	0.56
14	@Iowa State	L21-29	10.3	14	72	5.1	0	—	—	—	-0.09

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

29.5%

Passing plays

6.4%

Rushing plays

49.6%

Standard downs

32.0%

Passing downs

23.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.27
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.63 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2024 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	Kansas State	2.3	0.250	—	54.2
2024	Kansas State	2.3	0.280	+0.03	55.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.