#4Deshaun Watson

QB·Clemson·2016 201514.7 pts line value1st Round

Deshaun Watson is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Clemson. Deshaun's 2016 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 716 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Deshaun Watson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

387/578 Comp/Att4593 Pass yards41 Pass TD17 INT67.0% Comp %

Rushing

629 Rush yards9 Rush TD165 Carries3.8 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts38 Punt yards38.0 Yards/punt38 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency57
Volume100
Dual-Threat36
Consistency82
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.19 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Syracuse (SP+ -3).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Patrick Mahomes	Texas Tech	2015	752	0.503	15.0	378.4
Lamar Jackson	Louisville	2016	714	0.543	16.1	387.6
Drake Maye	North Carolina	2022	707	0.523	13.0	369.6
Clayton Tune	Houston	2022	652	0.542	13.9	353.3
Dak Prescott	Mississippi State	2015	655	0.514	13.6	336.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Auburn	W19-13	15.3	19/34	248	1	1	63.3	21	0	0.13
2	vsTroy	W30-24	1.1	27/53	292	3	2	29.8	55	0	0.12
3	vsSouth Carolina State	W59-0	—	12/15	152	3	0	93.7	8	0	0.79
4	@Georgia Tech	W26-7	7.8	32/48	304	2	1	61.4	36	0	0.22
5	vsLouisville	W42-36	22.9	20/31	306	5	3	61.6	91	0	0.19
6	@Boston College	W56-10	-1.6	15/25	270	4	0	85.7	33	0	0.46
7	vsNC State	W24-17	9.4	39/52	378	2	1	87.4	35	1	0.10
9	@Florida State	W37-34	24.0	27/43	378	2	2	58.3	52	0	0.27
10	vsSyracuse	W54-0	-2.7	13/16	169	2	0	92.4	39	1	0.79
11	vsPittsburgh	L42-43	13.1	52/70	580	3	3	82.2	8	0	0.33
12	@Wake Forest	W35-13	-0.6	23/33	202	1	0	77.5	47	2	0.32
13	vsSouth Carolina	W56-7	-4.0	26/32	347	6	1	92.9	19	0	0.75
14	vsVirginia Tech	W42-35	15.2	23/34	288	3	1	80.5	85	2	0.53
1	vsOhio State	W31-0	22.4	23/36	259	1	2	66.5	57	2	0.32
1	vsAlabama	W35-31	31.7	36/56	420	3	0	63.3	43	1	0.32

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

59.9%

Passing plays

91.5%

Rushing plays

26.6%

Standard downs

55.5%

Passing downs

71.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.55
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 30 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Clemson	16.2	0.584	—	418.1
2016	Clemson	14.7	0.541	-0.04	410.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.