#5Patrick Mahomes

QB·Texas Tech·2016 201515.0 pts line value1st Round

Patrick Mahomes is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Texas Tech. Patrick's 2015 season ranks in the 55th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 679 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Patrick Mahomes's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

364/573 Comp/Att4653 Pass yards36 Pass TD15 INT63.5% Comp %

Rushing

456 Rush yards10 Rush TD131 Carries3.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency55
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency82
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)55th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.36 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.78 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UTEP (SP+ -20).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Clayton Tune	Houston	2022	652	0.542	13.9	353.3
Lamar Jackson	Louisville	2016	714	0.543	16.1	387.6
Dak Prescott	Mississippi State	2015	655	0.514	13.6	336.6
Deshaun Watson	Clemson	2015	716	0.584	16.2	418.1
Sam Ehlinger	Texas	2019	652	0.535	13.2	349.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSam Houston	W59-45	—	33/53	425	4	1	88.5	48	0	0.51
2	vsUTEP	W69-20	-19.5	18/33	361	4	0	93.2	23	2	0.78
3	@Arkansas	W35-24	19.2	26/30	243	1	2	90.7	58	2	0.65
4	vsTCU	L52-55	19.0	25/45	392	2	0	84.5	36	1	0.43
5	vsBaylor	L35-63	19.5	32/50	415	3	2	90.5	39	1	0.50
6	vsIowa State	W66-31	-0.3	33/46	428	5	0	92.3	1	0	0.61
7	@Kansas	W30-20	-21.3	29/50	354	1	1	57.4	29	0	0.12
8	@Oklahoma	L27-63	22.7	26/40	233	1	4	29.4	47	1	0.10
9	vsOklahoma State	L53-70	9.9	38/55	480	4	2	76.0	46	1	0.22
10	@West Virginia	L26-31	12.9	21/34	196	3	1	52.9	73	0	0.14
11	vsKansas State	W59-44	2.6	33/42	384	3	0	73.7	14	1	0.45
13	@Texas	W48-45	3.7	22/39	372	1	1	67.4	70	1	0.29
1	vsLSU	L27-56	19.7	28/56	370	4	1	43.3	-28	0	0.12

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

64.2%

Passing plays

92.8%

Rushing plays

25.2%

Standard downs

58.2%

Passing downs

76.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.69
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.56

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Texas Tech	15.0	0.503	—	378.4
2016	Texas Tech	17.5	0.544	+0.04	390.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.