#8Lamar Jackson

QB·Louisville·2017 201616.1 pts line value1st Round

Lamar Jackson is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Louisville. Lamar's 2016 season ranks in the 60th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 583 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Lamar Jackson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

230/409 Comp/Att3543 Pass yards30 Pass TD9 INT56.2% Comp %

Rushing

1571 Rush yards21 Rush TD260 Carries6.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency60
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency77
Clutch83

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)60th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.25 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.98 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Charlotte (SP+ -21).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jared Goff	California	2015	559	0.610	15.7	341.0
Kyle Trask	Florida	2020	536	0.648	16.3	347.5
Chad Kelly	Ole Miss	2015	583	0.635	17.5	370.2
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7
Brandon Doughty	Western Kentucky	2014	612	0.620	17.8	379.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsCharlotte	W70-14	-20.9	17/23	286	6	0	98.5	119	2	0.98
2	@Syracuse	W62-28	-2.7	20/39	411	1	1	95.8	199	4	0.59
3	vsFlorida State	W63-20	24.0	13/20	216	1	1	94.5	146	4	0.57
4	@Marshall	W59-28	-12.7	24/44	417	5	1	81.0	62	2	0.49
5	@Clemson	L36-42	28.7	27/44	295	1	1	71.0	162	2	0.28
7	vsDuke	W24-14	-2.8	13/26	181	1	0	72.5	144	1	0.32
8	vsNC State	W54-13	9.4	20/34	355	3	0	90.1	76	1	0.50
9	@Virginia	W32-25	-3.8	24/41	361	4	1	81.5	88	0	0.52
10	@Boston College	W52-7	-1.6	12/17	231	4	1	99.8	185	3	0.93
11	vsWake Forest	W44-12	-0.6	14/26	145	1	0	48.8	153	0	0.14
12	@Houston	L10-36	10.1	20/43	211	1	0	20.3	33	0	0.04
13	vsKentucky	L38-41	-2.6	16/25	281	2	3	76.4	171	2	0.35
1	vsLSU	L9-29	25.3	10/27	153	0	0	7.9	33	0	-0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

68.2%

Passing plays

94.1%

Rushing plays

45.3%

Standard downs

65.5%

Passing downs

74.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.51

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Louisville	16.1	0.543	—	387.6
2017	Louisville	16.8	0.576	+0.03	384.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.