#4Dalvin Cook

RB·Florida State·2016 20155.8 pts line value1st Round

Dalvin Cook is a 2-year Featured Back for Florida State. Dalvin's 2015 season ranks in the 90th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 256 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dalvin Cook's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1691 Rush yards19 Rush TD229 Carries7.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

24 Receptions244 Rec yards1 Rec TD10.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency90
Volume93
Explosiveness88
Consistency54
Receiving42

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)90th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency54th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.52 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.61 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Wake Forest (SP+ -5).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Najee Harris	Alabama	2020	275	0.440	5.9	121.0
DeWayne McBride	UAB	2022	242	0.420	5.8	101.6
Tyjae Spears	Tulane	2022	234	0.450	5.7	105.3
Tyler Allgeier	BYU	2021	271	0.440	6.3	119.2
Blake Corum	Michigan	2022	266	0.450	6.5	119.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsTexas State	W59-16	-15.5	19	156	8.2	2	1	13	0	0.43
2	vsSouth Florida	W34-14	3.6	30	266	8.9	3	—	—	—	0.39
3	@Boston College	W14-0	4.7	15	54	3.6	0	2	3	0	-0.19
5	@Wake Forest	W24-16	-4.5	2	94	47.0	1	1	8	0	2.61
6	vsMiami	W29-24	11.0	22	222	10.1	2	3	47	1	0.50
7	vsLouisville	W41-21	13.2	22	163	7.4	2	4	60	0	0.50
8	@Georgia Tech	L16-22	9.0	17	82	4.8	1	4	50	0	0.28
10	@Clemson	L13-23	24.0	21	194	9.2	1	1	4	0	0.35
11	vsNC State	W34-17	9.6	22	138	6.3	2	2	17	0	0.27
12	vsChattanooga	W52-13	—	15	106	7.1	2	1	5	0	0.32
13	@Florida	W27-2	13.8	26	183	7.0	2	3	11	0	0.07
1	vsHouston	L24-38	6.2	18	33	1.8	1	2	26	0	-0.17

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

32.6%

Passing plays

7.5%

Rushing plays

62.3%

Standard downs

40.3%

Passing downs

17.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 1.01
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.72 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Florida State	5.8	0.450	—	102.6
2016	Florida State	4.3	0.340	-0.11	99.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.