#22Najee Harris

RB·Alabama·2020 20195.9 pts line value1st Round

Najee Harris is a 2-year Featured Back for Alabama. Najee's 2020 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 292 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Najee Harris's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

1466 Rush yards26 Rush TD251 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

43 Receptions425 Rec yards4 Rec TD9.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency88
Volume97
Explosiveness56
Consistency84
Receiving68

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (88th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Peak game: 0.51 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Tennessee (SP+ 1).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Cameron Skattebo	Arizona State	2024	309	0.410	6.2	126.7
Tyler Allgeier	BYU	2021	271	0.440	6.3	119.2
Jeremy Langford	Michigan State	2014	297	0.400	6.4	118.8
Bijan Robinson	Texas	2022	276	0.390	5.9	107.6
Bryce Love	Stanford	2017	284	0.460	6.7	130.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
4	@Missouri	W38-19	-1.0	17	98	5.8	3	2	8	0	0.39
5	vsTexas A&M	W52-24	16.2	12	43	3.6	2	2	26	0	0.34
6	@Ole Miss	W63-48	4.8	23	206	9.0	5	3	42	0	0.43
7	vsGeorgia	W41-24	19.1	31	152	4.9	1	1	10	0	0.11
8	@Tennessee	W48-17	0.9	20	96	4.8	3	6	61	0	0.51
9	vsMississippi State	W41-0	-1.4	21	119	5.7	0	6	36	0	0.01
12	vsKentucky	W63-3	2.2	13	83	6.4	2	2	27	0	0.38
13	vsAuburn	W42-13	12.6	11	96	8.7	1	2	34	0	0.30
14	@LSU	W55-17	6.0	21	145	6.9	3	2	3	0	0.23
15	@Arkansas	W52-3	1.6	14	46	3.3	2	1	2	0	-0.02
16	vsFlorida	W52-46	19.8	31	178	5.7	2	5	67	3	0.30
1	vsNotre Dame	W31-14	21.0	15	125	8.3	0	4	30	0	0.37
1	vsOhio State	W52-24	28.4	22	79	3.6	2	7	79	1	0.37

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

34.1%

Passing plays

12.7%

Rushing plays

54.9%

Standard downs

37.2%

Passing downs

24.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.18
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.36 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Alabama	3.7	0.370	—	77.0
2020	Alabama	5.9	0.440	+0.07	121.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.