#7D'Andre Swift

RB·Georgia·20191.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

D'Andre Swift is a Explosive Back for Georgia. D'Andre's 2019 season ranks in the 28th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 224 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So D'Andre Swift's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1218 Rush yards7 Rush TD196 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

24 Receptions216 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.0 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns16 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency28
Volume67
Explosiveness64
Consistency55
Receiving54

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)28th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency55th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.40 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.95 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Murray State.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Vanderbilt	W30-6	-10.4	16	147	9.2	0	—	—	—	0.20
2	vsMurray State	W63-17	—	6	67	11.2	2	1	9	0	0.95
3	vsArkansas State	W55-0	-2.9	9	76	8.4	0	2	64	1	0.90
4	vsNotre Dame	W23-17	17.7	18	98	5.4	1	3	2	0	0.15
6	@Tennessee	W43-14	10.8	17	72	4.2	1	4	72	0	0.23
7	vsSouth Carolina	L17-20	4.8	23	113	4.9	1	2	8	0	0.07
8	vsKentucky	W21-0	9.1	21	179	8.5	2	1	-7	0	0.52
10	vsFlorida	W24-17	24.0	25	86	3.4	0	1	24	0	-0.14
11	vsMissouri	W27-0	7.8	12	83	6.9	0	1	0	0	0.05
12	@Auburn	W21-14	21.0	17	106	6.2	0	2	-3	0	0.08
13	vsTexas A&M	W19-13	15.0	19	103	5.4	0	4	29	0	0.17
14	@Georgia Tech	W52-7	-12.0	10	73	7.3	0	—	—	—	-0.17
15	vsLSU	L10-37	33.1	2	13	6.5	0	3	18	0	0.39
1	vsBaylor	W26-14	17.8	1	2	2.0	0	—	—	—	-0.18

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.4%

Passing plays

7.0%

Rushing plays

38.2%

Standard downs

26.6%

Passing downs

16.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.02
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.